The International Monetary Fund (IMF), within the framework of the eighth review of the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program for Ukraine, has slightly revised its adverse scenario, while acknowledging that alternative, more pessimistic developments remain highly probable, reports Baltimore Chronicle with reference to the Fund’s published document.
The IMF noted that, given the ongoing peace negotiations and their unpredictable outcomes, modeling other scenarios at this stage is premature. The current adverse scenario still envisions the end of the war in the second quarter of 2026. However, during the eighth review, the timing of the main shock was shifted to the third quarter of 2025.
According to the updated scenario, Ukraine’s real GDP is expected to decline by 1% in 2025, which is one percentage point more than in the seventh review. In 2026, growth will remain flat (an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous forecast), while in 2027 the economy is projected to grow by 3.8%, consistent with prior estimates.
In addition to the usual risks such as the escalation of hostilities, prolonged conflict, and reduced external military and economic support, the IMF has added new threats to its risk list. These include the rise of populist pressures and growing resistance from vested interests, which, according to the Fund, may significantly complicate reform efforts, particularly within the parliament.
Earlier we wrote that Ukraine has already torn down three beacons from the eighth review of the IMF program.