In May 2024, significant changes in the dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia should not be expected.
In May the currency market of Ukraine will be influenced by a number of important factors. However, the overall strategic picture will remain more or less stable.
Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, told RBC-Ukraine.
“Firstly< /strong>, the point is that the “managed flexibility” regime will continue to operate and the “system” of currency changes will function accordingly: they will be insignificant, but sometimes multidirectional. In addition, as was the case in April, weekly deviations from Monday’s rate will not exceed 2% (up to 0.8 UAH) with the permissible 5%,” the banker said.
Secondly< /strong>, the trend towards gradual liberalization of the market will continue: the regulator may reduce its influence on exchange rate formation on the interbank market.
Thirdly, the cash market will form its own exchange rate policy – mainly taking into account exchange rate changes on the interbank market, the expert explained.
Fourth, the regulator will have more options or behavioral models for intervening on the interbank market, depending on demand, either increasing or decreasing the volume of foreign exchange interventions.
It was previously reported that in the near future the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will not grow, including to 50 UAH and higher. However, the National Bank of Ukraine will try to slowly bring the hryvnia to 40-41 UAH per dollar, which is due to economic factors. And current exchange rate fluctuations in reality do not exceed 1%.
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