In a subsidized economy, it is impossible to create grounds for strengthening the hryvnia.
The state of the Ukrainian economy does not give hope to strengthen the hryvnia, but the NBU will most likely keep it within the government forecast until the end of the year.
Doctor of Economic Sciences Viktor Borshchevsky spoke about this in a commentary for Espreso.Zakhid.
“On the cash market, the exchange rate is growing because the official NBU rate is growing. Why is the NBU raising the dollar and euro rates? Because we have there is a lot of pressure on the hryvnia. If we had an objective exchange rate, the picture would be much sadder,” Borshchevsky explained.
In his opinion, the foreign exchange market is also affected by what the government is supposed to do next month. payments on external debts.
“As far as I know, there are still no agreements; this debt will be extended or restructured for us,” the economist noted.
According to him, even if the situation with these payments is resolved, the hryvnia will still not be able to strengthen even to the indicators that were in winter and spring.
“To strengthen the hryvnia, the situation in the economy must improve. And our economy today is completely dependent on foreign receipts. And we are not talking about investments, but about subsidies In the conditions of a subsidized economy, it is unrealistic to hope that the hryvnia will strengthen, but there will be no rapid collapse, in my opinion. When forming the budget for 2024, the government set the predicted exchange rate for the hryvnia at the end of the year. , in which the NBU will maintain the rate,” noted Viktor Borshchevsky.
Recall that according to the forecast of banker Taras Lesovoy, at the end of July a gradual movement towards currency growth will become noticeable. In particular, the US dollar will vary between 40.5–41.5 UAH.