The expert believes that any rapid and sensational exchange rate changes are unlikely now.
Until the end of September, the hryvnia devaluation will be insignificant. Probably, by October 1, the official exchange rate dollar will not exceed 41.3 UAH.
Bank Taras Lesovoy reported this in a commentary to BRK.Ukraine.
“By all indications, the end of September on the currency market will not be amazing: on the one hand, currency fluctuations will occur almost daily, alternately – up and down. However, the nature of the changes will not cast doubt on the general exchange rate indicators,” the expert said.
Lesnoy does not rule out that due to the activity of exporters on certain days, the interbank may experience a currency surplus. This will be reflected in a situational decrease in exchange rates. For example, this was the case on September 6, when trading on the interbank ended with the dollar rate falling below 41 UAH.
“At present, any rapid and sensational exchange rate changes are unlikely to have a positive effect on both business and ordinary citizens. However, purely theoretically, it cannot be ruled out that devaluation processes may continue in October, although, by analogy with April, May or July, they will not be rapid and will not exceed 1.3-1.5% per month,” Lesovoy added.
According to the banker's forecast, the main characteristics of the currency market from September 23 to 29 will be as follows:
- the corridors of acceptable currency changes on the interbank market will be 41-41.6 UAH/USD and 44-46 UAH/EUR, on the cash market – 41.2-41.8 UAH/USD and 44-46.5 UAH/USD.
- depending on the currency, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0.3–0.5 UAH.
“Despite inflationary pressure, the currency market will remain relatively calm, because the regulator is ready to take urgent measures to mitigate any panic and neutralize negative trends. Summing up the currency September, we can conclude that the general situation remains predictable for the second month in a row with minimal risks for sharp exchange rate changes,” says Taras Lesovoy.
Recall that experts have given a forecast for what the dollar exchange rate will be until the end of 2024. It is noted that the general situation on the currency market will remain fairly stable and predictable.
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