There will be no significant changes in the currency market in the first week of October.
There will be no fundamental changes in the currency market in the first week of October. Exchange rates will remain under the influence of the “managed flexibility” regime and the NBU's participation in balancing supply and demand.
This was reported by Taras Lesovoy, Head of the Treasury Department of Globus Bank, RBC-Ukraine reported.
He noted that currency interventions will play a key role in the formation of current rates. He also noted that the market may experience inertial phenomena, so the exchange rate indicators at the beginning of October may be similar to the end of September, and the downward or upward trend may continue in the first days of October.
The banker emphasized that the exchange rate indicators for October 1 will be important for analyzing the situation on the currency market. According to his forecast, the official dollar exchange rate on this date will be 41.3 hryvnia.
Lesnoy said that one should not expect any sensations from the currency market, since all possible exchange rate changes will be minor. However, if the downward or upward trends continue for more than three days, this may have a cumulative effect. However, such cases are likely to be an exception, since since the beginning of the year, trends have changed every 3-4 days.
According to the banker's forecast, from September 30 to October 6, the main characteristics of the currency market will be as follows: the corridors of acceptable changes on the interbank market will be 41-41.6 UAH per dollar and 44-46 UAH per euro, and on the cash market – 41.2-41.8 UAH per dollar and 44-46.5 UAH per euro. The average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0.3-0.5 UAH, and weekly exchange rate deviations will be within 2% of the starting rate of the week. Lesnoy emphasized that the situation on the currency market will not change in the first days of October, and the exchange rate indicators on the cash market will depend on the interbank market. Radical changes are unlikely, but further growth of rates is possible in accordance with the forecasts included in the budget for 2024.
Recall that analyst Oleksiy Kozyrev predicts a smooth devaluation of the hryvnia by the end of the year, believing that the dollar exchange rate on the cash market will reach 42-43 UAH/USD by the end of 2024.