The hryvnia exchange rate in September was under close supervision of the National Bank of Ukraine.
September showed the stability of the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar, despite seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand. Thanks to the efforts of the NBU, significant devaluation risks were avoided.
RBC-Ukraine writes about this with reference to economic experts.
According to Yuri Krokhmal, Head of Treasury Products Sales at Bank Avangard JSC, a traditional seasonal revival of the currency market is expected in October. This will primarily occur due to large volumes of supply and demand.
“This will reflect the traditional activation of importers (primarily electronics and consumer goods) and exporters (including farmers) for this period of time,” he noted.
At the same time, the expert emphasized, one should not expect a sharp change in the exchange rate, because the NBU has a strong position and sufficient resources to continue the policy of controlled flexibility in the formation of the exchange rate on the interbank currency market.
Krakhmal believes that against the background of increased demand, a gradual drift towards an increase in the dollar exchange rate may be observed, but with a high probability, the market range will remain within 41.00-42.00 hryvnia per 1 dollar.
“Considering the acceleration of inflation and a number of inflation risks that the NBU pays attention to, the regulator will most likely be subject to limiting devaluation so as not to increase price pressure in the economy,” the bank's representative noted.
Acting Executive Director of the Independent Association of Ukrainian Banks Dmitry Glinsky believes that the hryvnia exchange rate on the foreign exchange market is currently determined exclusively by the ability of the NBU to close the difference between supply and demand through interventions.
The irregularity of external financial receipts, according to Glinsky, will not affect the exchange rate. He noted that if in August Ukraine received more than 8 billion dollars from international partners, then in September the result was practically zero.
What will happen to the current week's exchange rate, moving between September and October, which is better: euro, dollar, are there other options, read in the weekly analytical project of the website ТСН.ua.
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