For now, the hryvnia faces the prospect of further devaluation, experts say.
Since July 2024, the hryvnia exchange rate has been fairly stable in the range of 41-41.5 UAH per dollar. However, in recent weeks, this range has narrowed to 41.2 UAH/dollar.
Analyst Andriy Shevchishin told Focus what to expect next.
The expert agreed that the National Bank is pursuing a fairly balanced policy and is trying to control exchange rate fluctuations in order to contain inflation expectations, albeit with great effort.
“So far, bank clients (we are talking about interbank transactions) are consistently buying almost 51 million dollars more than they are selling. And if we do not accumulate the population and business, then we will reach 90-100 million per day. This is the demand for currency that we have. The National Bank is currently holding the market. It is spending more than 3 billion dollars on interventions to bring down this demand, where we will be, perhaps, until the end of the year,” the expert noted.
Director of the analytical department of the investment company Eavex Capital Dmitry Churin gave a forecast for the dollar exchange rate for 2025.
“For now, the hryvnia is facing the prospect of further devaluation. Next year, the baseline scenario assumes that the dollar will jump to 45 UAH/USD. Nevertheless, over the next two to three months, the National Bank may continue to control the situation on the interbank market and leave the rate in the corridor of 41-43 UAH/USD,” Churin said.
Recall that the head of the NBU Andriy Pyshnyy said that throughout this war, the National Bank has been declaring the thesis of ensuring the stability of the foreign exchange market and returning its functionality.
Pyshnyy recalled that exactly a year has passed since the NBU announced the abandonment of the fixed exchange rate as part of the agreement with the IMF.
“From October 3, 2023, the foreign exchange market and the NBU abandoned one of the toughest anti-crisis measures to fix the exchange rate and switched to a controlled flexibility mode. This was part of the strategy adopted in June 2023 and part of our agreements with the IMF,” Pyshny noted.