The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its forecast for the Russian economy.
Russia's economic growth peaked during the war. Next year, analysts predict a sharp collapse in the aggressor state's economic indicators, despite active military production.
Bloomberg writes about this.
“What the growth trajectory will be next year remains an open question – will it be a “soft” or “hard” landing for the economy,” Russian economist Oleg Kuzmin noted in this regard.
In October, the Bank of Finland Institute noted that military production in Russia, which has driven breakneck growth in recent quarters, continues to increase, but not enough to offset the decline in other sectors of the economy.
The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its forecast for the Russian economy and now sees growth in 2025 at 1.3%, down from 1.5% previously.
The publication noted that Russia quickly recovered from the post-invasion recession in 2023, expanding its economy by 3.6% annually thanks to defense-related spending. However, the increase in military production may now come at the expense of civilian sectors.
Bloomberg Economics' Composite Economic Activity Tracker, a compilation of about 60 key indicators of the health of the Russian economy, shows activity has been steadily declining since late 2023. That means that after two years of growth of about 3.5%, the economy is likely to slow by about 1% to 2% in 2025.
The growth outlook was already bleak before the full-scale invasion began, but it is now “even bleaker,” according to Anders Olofsgaard, an associate professor at the Stockholm Institute of Transition Economics.
Let us recall that the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, Kirill Budanov, previously predicted that in the summer of 2025, serious problems in the economy of the Russian Federation will begin and there will be a need for mobilization, which could destabilize the socio-political situation in the aggressor country.
Russian oil burns well! How many Russian oil refineries have already been destroyed?
