The dollar exchange rate may come as close as possible to the UAH 42 mark.
The situation on the currency market will remain relatively calm in November. The NBU's currency interventions will make excitement or panic impossible. But the current corridors of acceptable exchange rate fluctuations will shift slightly upward.
Banker Taras Lesovy spoke about this in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
According to the banker, we should expect a shift in the corridors on the interbank market to 41.2-41.8 UAH/USD and 45.3-47.3 UAH/EUR, and on the cash market – to 41.3-42 UAH/USD and 45.5-47.8 UAH/EUR.
“That is, the “managed flexibility” regime will not be cancelled: we can expect frequent multidirectional changes in exchange rates, but these changes will not be overly sensational and will occur as before, according to the system of currency changes formed/formed as a result of the “managed flexibility” regime,” Lesovy said.
He made an assumption based on an analysis of previous months. Thus, the real fluctuation corridor of the dollar exchange rate will be at the level of 41.5-41.9 UAH.
“That is, the dollar exchange rate can come as close as possible to the mark of 42 UAH, that is, to the figure of the macro forecast for the end of the year,” the banker noted.
He added that thus, at the end of November, the final dollar exchange rate for 2024 could be finally formed.
At the same time, it is impossible to take into account all the factors that could weaken or strengthen the hryvnia. There are still no answers to a number of important questions: the volume of macrofinancial aid for 2025, the average weighted dollar exchange rate included in the budget, and the consequences of winter (energy, military, economic).
“Thus, the year is approaching its denouement on the currency market, but there are no prerequisites for any rapid currency changes or any unpredictable cataclysms,” Lesovyi summed up.
Recall that earlier analyst Andriy Shevchishin gave his forecast for what the dollar exchange rate would be by the end of the year and what Ukrainians should prepare for.
Read also:
- The head of the NBU announced a forecast for changes in the exchange rate in Ukraine
- A thousand from Zelensky: who will not receive money
- Ukrainians will receive a housing subsidy of UAH 21,000: who are we talking about
Subscribe to our channels in Telegram and Viber.