In the coming months, inflation is likely to continue to rise due to the influence of food factors, large budget expenditures, high rates of wage growth and energy shortages during the heating season.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) predicts an acceleration of inflation in the coming months, but expects it to slow down in mid-2025.
This was stated by NBU Governor Andriy Pyshnyy during a briefing.
According to Pyshnyy, in November, annual inflation rose to 11.2%. The main reason for this was restrictions on food supply due to low harvests.
“The impact of this factor on inflation is expected to level out next year with the arrival of the new harvest,” the NBU head noted.
At the same time, inflationary pressure has fundamental signs, in particular, the acceleration of core inflation to 9.3% in November. This is explained by the growth of production costs, including electricity costs, wages, as well as the effects of the weakening of the hryvnia in previous periods.
Although inflation expectations remain relatively stable, there are risks of their imbalance due to the growing attention of the population to inflation processes, Pyshny added.
“In the coming months, annual inflation is likely to continue to grow due to the further influence of factors from the supply of food products, significant budget expenditures, significant rates of increase in wages and a higher energy deficit during the heating season. However, in the future, inflation should slow down against the backdrop of a gradual improvement in the energy sector and an increase in harvests,” the head of the NBU concluded.
Recall that according to the State Statistics Service, in November, prices rose by almost 2%, and the overall growth since the beginning of the year has exceeded 10%. This is twice the target of the National Bank and half a percent higher than the planned budget figures.
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