It is profitable for the NBU to keep the exchange rate fairly stable.
The growth of the dollar exchange rate in 2025 to 46-47 hryvnia is a healthy process for the Ukrainian economy, which will help manufacturers maintain competitiveness.
This was stated by the director of the investment company Dragon Capital Tomas Fialla.
According to him, on the one hand, it is beneficial for the National Bank to keep the rate fairly stable. However, Ukraine has a significant trade balance deficit at the level of 15% of GDP, which is covered by $40 billion in international aid per year. Ukraine is guaranteed to receive this money next year.
This is the first time we have such predictability. This also adds comfort to our macro forecasts and our investment. This is the first time during the war that we know, we are confident that our budget deficit will be financed not only for the next year, but also for part of 2026. This is very good,” said Tomas Fiala.
He notes that the National Bank, in its exchange rate policy, needs to pay attention to the competitiveness of local producers, “so that we do not somehow sponsor or subsidize the import of foreign producers instead of helping local producers.”
“The dollar has strengthened significantly. Therefore, it will be great for the economy if the hryvnia, I think, continues to devalue at the same rate next year as it has this year. This is about 10%. This means that if we end this year at about 42, if we end next year at 46-47, then there will be nothing bad about it. competitiveness,” added the director of the investment company Dragon Capital.
As reported, the dollar in Ukraine has begun to appreciate rapidly – the precarious balance that the National Bank had maintained for a long time has been disrupted. The average non-cash rate reached 42 UAH/dollar, and the average cash rate left this level behind.
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Ukraine received 1.1 billion dollars from the IMF
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