In January, the difference between the cash and official rates increased slightly.
The situation in the non-cash segment of the foreign exchange market is stable. The volume of international reserves of the National Bank as of January 1, 2025 reached record levels – 43.8 billion dollars, while at the beginning of the full-scale invasion it did not exceed 30 billion US dollars. Therefore, the National Bank has enough tools and resources to maintain the stability of the foreign exchange market.
This was clearly demonstrated by the example of December 2024. In December, despite significant net demand for non-cash currency in the context of seasonal growth in budget expenditures and business operations at the end of the year, the hryvnia weakened against the dollar by only 1%. The hryvnia exchange rate against the euro remained almost unchanged, given the strengthening of the US dollar against the euro on world markets.
In January, the official hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar continued to decline, primarily due to the already mentioned seasonal factors. At the same time, the hryvnia weakened not rapidly, and in recent days there has been a gradual increase in the supply of currency.
The situation in the cash segment of the foreign exchange market remains under control. There is no shortage of currency or rush demand for foreign currency. The average daily volume of net purchases of cash currency by the population increased slightly – to USD 57 million in January 2025 against USD 54 million in December 2024.
The financial system has sufficient currency liquidity, including cash, to meet customer demand for foreign currency. The volume of cash currency in bank cash desks as of January 10, 2025 was at about USD 1 billion, which corresponds to the figures for 2024.
At the same time, in January, the difference between the cash and official rates increased slightly. However, according to the NBU, this phenomenon is temporary given the significant capacity of banks to meet the demand for cash currency at a rate close to the official one.
The National Bank will continue to ensure the stability of the foreign exchange market, which means that exchange rate fluctuations will be moderate and will not threaten to break the inflation trend in 2025 and bring inflation to the target of 5% in the following years.
An important task for the NBU is to maintain the attractiveness of hryvnia instruments for savings. Currently, rates on hryvnia deposits and government bonds cover the expected inflation. In addition, by the end of 2024, higher interest rates on the corresponding hryvnia instruments offset the weakening of the hryvnia against the US dollar by 10.6% and against the euro by 4%. The National Bank will continue to make efforts to ensure that savings instruments in national currency remain attractive.
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