The dollar has become cheaper on the market, but economists believe that its rate may change again.
The dollar is getting cheaper again and quite quickly. The selling rate has fallen significantly below 43 hryvnia per dollar.
Victoria Panchenko spoke about this in an exclusive for TSN.UA.
What is happening on the currency market
According to specialized websites, the decline in the cash dollar exchange rate began on Tuesday, January 14, and became noticeable a few days later. 42.06 UAH/dollar (-10 kopecks per week). (-35 kopecks per week), the lowest – 42.30 UAH/dollar (-30 kopecks). The maximum purchase rate was 42.30 UAH/dollar, that is, it was equal to the minimum sale rate. in different cities of Ukraine: dollars were bought at a high price where they were sold at a higher price than the average market price and vice versa.
But the euro has been in turmoil for the second week in a row, the rate changed sinusoidally: that for two days, up and down, the fluctuations were 40 kopecks to 44.15 UAH/EUR. On Sunday, January 19, the selling rate among illegals was 44.07 (-35 kopecks per week), the buying rate was 44 UAH/EUR (-13 kopecks per week). On January 20, the regulator set the rate at 43.37 UAH.
Experts call such jumps in the euro rate situational, associated with insignificant sales volumes, which arithmetically gave a large spread. Economic discussion club Oleg Pendzin.
The National Bank strengthened the hryvnia against the dollar all last week. The long-term trend of devaluation, which began in the last week of November last year, stopped on Tuesday, January 14, and on Friday, the 17th, it changed to the opposite. The hryvnia officially rose in price by 15 kopecks over the week, to 42.13 UAH/USD. As of January 21, the value of the US dollar rose by 3 kopecks and amounted to 42.15 UAH.
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchishin says that the dollar has become cheaper due to purely market factors: the supply of currency on both the interbank and cash markets has increased, while demand has significantly decreased.
“If at the beginning of January the demand for buying currency increased by 25% with a decrease in supply, then later the situation changed to the opposite, a significant number of sellers appeared on the interbank market. The supply on the interbank increased by 20%, because sellers sell currency to make the necessary payments in hryvnia to the budget, and the demand has hardly changed. From 42.45 to 42.15 UAH/dollar. On the cash market, the demand for currency also did not increase, it seems that the speculative excitement has waned.”
Economist Andriy Zablovsky added that the market has ceased to be under pressure from a significant amount of hryvnia from the state budget paid in December 2024, these are record expenses – more than UAH 705 billion.
“These funds gradually dispersed, partially transformed into dollars and euros, speculative excitement began to wane, and the dollar exchange rate fell,” the expert stated.
What to expect from the exchange rate
It is noteworthy that experts gave different forecasts: from a further depreciation of the dollar or its stability to possible jumps in the exchange rate caused, in particular, by the inauguration of the new US president, named two factors that will influence the dollar exchange rate both this week and further.
“First, the National Bank, in my opinion, will raise the key rate this week (the annual interest rate at which the regulator lends to commercial banks) from 13.5% to 14% per annum, which will strengthen the hryvnia somewhat. The second factor is the acceleration of inflation, which the regulator can slow down only by containing the dollar exchange rate through its additional sales on the interbank market. By stabilizing the exchange rate, the dollar will not get cheaper, but it will not get more expensive either.”
Andriy Zablovsky does not rule out that the hryvnia may strengthen further this week, but not by much.
“The interbank market will fluctuate in the range of 42.15-42.40 UAH/USD, and cash hryvnia will fluctuate within 42.50-42.70 UAH, we are talking about the sales rate. However, there is also such a factor as the political events of the week. In particular, the inauguration of the new US president on January 20 and his first statements on the country's economic policy, for example, about the already announced policy of a strong dollar. They can affect the hryvnia exchange rate – both weaken it and strengthen it.
In Ukraine, during January 20-26, the US dollar will be in the range of 42 hryvnias., mid-January on the currency market will be an active period of increased counteraction to inflation. supply and demand That is why the official rate will be in the range of 42-42.50 UAH per dollar. newly elected US President Donald Trump, as well as the reaction of society to the possible consequences of the anger of the Russian Federation and the situation at the front.
It is noteworthy that a member of the Economic Discussion Club Oleg Pendzin refrained from predicting where the dollar exchange rate will move in Ukraine from January 20 to 26. “This week can figuratively be called “Trump week”., which are already being prepared. so-called “trade wars”, which was announced. Therefore, unpredictable fluctuations in the rates of many world currencies, including the hryvnia, are possible.
Sell or buy currency
The expert advises to earn on the hryvnia by investing it, first of all, in domestic government loan bonds (OVGZ) with a term of three months. And small amounts – up to 10 thousand UAH are better to put on a short-term deposit. buy a depreciating dollar, because in the long term (several years) this will give a profit due to the growth of the exchange rate.
“Cash currency at home is long-term savings that are always at hand. Those who want to make a profit faster – let them buy OVGZ or take hryvnia to the bank for deposits.”
In turn, Andrey Zablovsky named several new investment instruments that have appeared on the market.
“The best thing is diversification, that is, you should not keep all savings only in hryvnia or only in foreign currency. Now about 40% of savings can be invested in short-term hryvnia deposits or government bonds, the rest – in dollars or euros. Also, investments in projects are already available in Ukraine that can give much greater profit than traditional ones, but require a certain level of financial literacy. There are many different cryptocurrencies, real estate investment funds, etc.
As for selling currency, the advice of experts has remained unchanged: it is still not worth selling it unless absolutely necessary.
Recall that earlier banker Anna Zolotko told whether the dollar exchange rate would rise in February, since the inauguration of US President Donald Trump affected the rate.
You can watch the video on the TSN YouTube channel at this link: OPA!