Inflation will slow down from the middle of the year, and economic growth will gain momentum.
Inflation will grow in the coming months, but will start to decline from the middle of the year. At the end of 2025, it will be 8.4%, and by the end of 2026, it will return to 5%.
This is stated in the NBU message.
Inflation
Acceleration of inflation in the coming months will reflect limited food supply due to worse harvests last year, as well as increased production costs, including energy and labor costs. However, this trend will not last.
Inflation is expected to peak in the second quarter and to begin to decline from mid-year. The NBU forecasts inflation to slow to 8.4% by the end of 2025.
In addition, business investments in energy independence have already been reflected in prices, so against the background of the expected reduction in energy deficits, this factor will also contribute to a decrease in inflation.
Economic growth will accelerate to 3.6% in 2025 and about 4% in subsequent years.
Wages
Under the influence of significant demand for labor, unemployment will decrease, however, it will remain above the level of full-scale invasion (around 10-11% in 2025-2027) due to the persistence of significant imbalances between the needs of employers and the knowledge and capabilities of potential jobs.
Wages are expected to continue to grow, although as the labor market situation gradually improves, the annual rate of their increase in real terms will slow to 3-4% in 2025-2027.
Housing and Utilities Tariffs
The cost of individual housing and utilities services for the population (natural gas, heating and hot water) remains below the level consistent with world gas prices. Accordingly, the moratorium on increasing tariffs for certain housing and communal services also limited the acceleration of inflation.
Recall that the annual inflation in Ukraine over the past year increased by 12%, including 1.4% in December (compared to the previous month). This is evidenced by data from the State Statistics Service.
Prices for food and housing and communal services, education and health in 2024 increased, while prices for clothing and footwear decreased. Economists say that global factors played a significant role in this.