In 2025, fuel prices will rise significantly faster than in the past.
As of February 2, the growth of retail fuel prices in Ukraine will accelerate to 13% per year, which is twice as much as before. At the same time, the actual price increase is still below the projected level.
Avtotema writes about this.
According to the National Bank of Ukraine's “Inflation Report” for January 2025, fuel price growth in Ukraine in Q4 2024 slowed to 4.8% in December (from 6% in September), which was below the forecast. However, in 2025, the rate of price increase will accelerate to 13% per year.
The September increase in excise taxes on fuel primarily affected the cost of liquefied gas. Its rise in price also led to higher prices for raw materials and increased demand in Europe, in particular due to the embargo on imports of Russian raw materials that came into force on December 20.
“At the same time, the predominantly downward dynamics of world oil prices and restrained demand against the background of sufficient reserves that importers and gas station networks formed for wholesale and retail sales before the first stage of increasing excise taxes limited the growth of prices for gasoline and diesel,” the National Bank said.
Fuel prices in Ukraine were influenced by the cost of raw materials, the exchange rate, changes in taxation and marketing strategies. At the end of 2024, fuel imports increased to create reserves before the increase in excise taxes in 2025, which will temporarily restrain price growth. However, the NBU predicts that after the reserves are exhausted, the rate of price increase will accelerate to 13%. This will affect the cost of goods and transport services. At the same time, in the medium term, the decline in global oil prices may partially offset the tax burden, which will slow down the rise in fuel prices.
Recall that we previously wrote tips for drivers on how to save on fuel.