The currency deficit has decreased.
The NBU will have to weaken the hryvnia against the dollar. A strong Ukrainian currency creates risks in the context of uncertainty over aid to Ukraine.
This is stated in the weekly review of the investment company ICU.
The National Bank weakened the official hryvnia exchange rate last week after three weeks of strengthening. It is noted that the currency deficit decreased even more last week – to a six-week minimum. The NBU’s currency interventions increased by 6% – the regulator sold $545 million from its reserves.
With the situation on the currency market relatively calm, the NBU weakened the official hryvnia exchange rate by 0.7% to 41.51 UAH/USD by the end of the week. The cash value of the dollar in systemically important banks by the end of the week increased to 41.2–41.7 UAH/USD or by almost 0.5%, the review says.
“The dynamics of the exchange rate over the past week demonstrate that the NBU is gradually increasing fluctuations in the hryvnia exchange rate and may move on to its further weakening. The long-term preservation of the hryvnia strong may prove unjustified and risky in the event of a negative development of the situation with international aid, especially if negotiations to end the war drag on or do not yield a positive result.
Let us recall that we previously wrote about the surprises that the dollar presents and why it is better not to buy the euro.
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