• 23/07/2024 05:38

When will the dollar and euro rise in price even more and what will the exchange rate be by the fall – banker’s forecast

 When will the dollar and euro rise in price even more and what will the exchange rate be by the fall – banker's forecast

According to the expert, from the second half of August and approximately until mid-September this will happen” ;slow but irreversible” increase in exchange rates

For now, the foreign exchange market is somewhat on pause, but closer to autumn, the grounds for an increase in exchange rates will become noticeable.

Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, spoke about this in an interview with UNIAN. .

According to him, in the second half of 2024, inflation should accelerate to 5-6%, but it will not exceed annual forecasts of 8.2%.

“The reasons for inflation are on the surface: rising prices due to revision of electricity tariffs and difficulties in business operations due to instability of energy supply. Also, an increase in excise taxes on fuel may add fuel, although such a change has already been announced for September,” the expert said.

The banker predicts that for some time, in July – the first half of August, the exchange rate fluctuations will remain. However, from the second half of August and approximately until mid-September, there will be a “slow but irreversible” growth of exchange rates, similar to April and May. According to the expert, the exchange rate will then be 41-42 UAH/$ and 44-47 UAH/€.

At the same time, Lesovoy reassures that there will be no sharp jump in the exchange rate. The National Bank will continue the “managed flexibility” regime.

“Therefore, abnormal conditions are almost excluded on the market: an exchange rate “storm” is excluded,” the banker assured.

Forecast of exchange rates for the next week:

  • Currency change corridors: on the interbank market 40-41 UAH/$ and 43-45 UAH/€, on the cash market 40-41.2 UAH/$ and 43-46 UAH/€;
  • daily exchange rate changes: on the interbank market – up to 0.2-0.3 UAH, in banks – up to 0.3-0.5 UAH, in exchange offices – up to 0.5 UAH;
  • difference between rates purchases and sales: on the interbank market up to 0.05 UAH per $1, up to 0.1 UAH per €1, in commercial banks up to 0.5-0.6 UAH per $1, up to 0.8-1 UAH. 1, at exchange offices up to 0.6-1 UAH per $1, up to 1-1.3 UAH per €1;
  • weekly exchange rate deviations are expected within 2% of the initial Monday rate.

“So, there is every reason to believe that the period of relative currency calm will continue during July 15-21 without any special or significant changes. The market is “preparing” for an autumn recovery,” concluded Lesovoy.

Earlier, the NBU told what will happen to the hryvnia in 2025 if the active war continues.

When will the dollar and euro rise in price even more and what will the exchange rate be by the fall – banker's forecast

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