The indicator of business confidence in industry and processing industry in Ukraine in December 2023 decreased by 2.7 percentage points (pp) compared to November, amounting to minus 13.5% and 15.6%, respectively. Interfax-Ukraine reports this with a link to the State Statistics Service.
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How the indicator has changed
The business climate indicator in industry decreased by 0.1 percentage points. to zero, and in the processing industry remained at the zero level, as in November.
Expectations for the prospects for business activity in 2023 began to improve in January, when the indicator of business confidence in industry increased by 4.2 percentage points. by December 2022 – to “minus” 14.2% (in processing – by 7 percentage points, to “minus” 14%) and by April it improved to “minus” 5.5% (“minus” 4% ).
However, already in May it dropped to minus 6.8% and minus 5%, respectively, and continued to decline during June-December.
Indicator of the business climate of industry since December 2022, when it amounted to minus 1.4 % (in the processing industry as well) by April 2023 increased to 0.6% (in the processing industry – up to 0.7%), but by November it dropped to zero.
The State Statistics Service reminds that the components for calculating these indicators have seasonally adjusted balance values generated on the basis of reports submitted by enterprises, in particular, estimates of the current volume of orders for production of products (demand) in industry – in December it amounted to “minus” 42%, in processing – “minus” 44%.
December expectations regarding production volumes in the next three months in industry were “minus” 9%, in processing – “minus” 14%, worsening by 8 p.p. compared to November .P. and 9 p.p. in accordance.
This figure reached its best value in 2023 in April, amounting to +10% in industry and +17% in processing.
In December, according to the results of a survey of industrial enterprises, there was a trend of expectations for an increase in selling prices for products in the next three month – they are expected by 31% of surveyed industrial enterprises, compared to 29% of respondents in November.
At the same time, 40% of surveyed industrial enterprises expect a decrease in production volumes in December 2023-February 2024, while an increase of 8% (in the processing industry, 30% and 16%, respectively); 23% expect an increase in selling prices for products (a decrease of 10%); 29% – reduction in the number of employees (increase – only 2%).
At the same time, 4% of surveyed industrial enterprises expect an increase in export demand, a decrease – 6%, retention at the same level – 25%, and 65% of exports do not will be.
Over the previous three months (September-November), 29% of industrial enterprises noted an increase in production volumes, while a decrease was 25%, and only 2% noted the current volume of orders for production (demand) above the norm, then as 41% – below normal and 57% – normal for the season.
At the same time, in December, 40% of respondents noted that it is difficult to predict the future development of business processes at an enterprise (56% – quite difficult), and only 1% – easy.
Survey methodology
Among the industrial enterprises surveyed by the State Statistics Service in December 1009, 48 were mining companies, 805 were processing companies, 97 were energy suppliers, 59 were water supply companies , sewerage, waste management.