The European environmental tax CBAM, which will begin to work in 2026, will cause significant damage to Ukrainian producers if rapid changes are not made to the model for its implementation. Now Ukraine still has a chance to delay its introduction if it takes urgent measures, Politico reports.
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“At a time when the EU promises to finance Ukraine’s military efforts, how much No matter how long it lasts, he is also stubbornly promoting a new law that, in its current form, could deplete the war-torn Ukrainian economy. We are talking about a tax that the EU plans to introduce on a number of carbon-intensive imports, in particular iron and steel,” the publication indicates.
Politico notes that due to Russia's full-scale invasion, Ukraine's dependence on exporting its products to the EU has increased significantly as Black Sea trade routes have been closed due to military dangers. As a result, Ukraine will experience a major economic hit in 2026 when the CBAM goes into effect. According to various estimates, the country could lose $1.4 billion.
“However, in the SWAM Act there is a clause on force majeure – or acts of God – for exceptional circumstances, and war and hostilities fall under this category. But Brussels has not given clear signals that it will offer Kiev an exception from the mechanism,” notes Politico.
Expert opinion
If the EU carbon tax came into force today , experts interviewed by the publication say, this would lead to a drop in the export of 1.4 million tons of pig iron from Ukraine, which is equivalent to a loss of $600 million.
Exports of semi-finished steel products would also fall by 1.3 million tons, which would amount to $640 million in lost revenue.
“Ukraine will be brought to its knees,” warned József Xapo, director of technology and strategy. ArcelorMittal Krivoy Rog,” the country’s largest metallurgical plant.
The EU is not interested in destroying the Ukrainian economy
At the same time, the publication notes that the EU itself is not interested in destroying the Ukrainian economy. This is partly why the CBAM regulations contain a provision on force majeure, which allows the EU to make exceptions.
Mohamed Shahim, MEP from the Netherlands, who heads the work of the relevant committee of the European Parliament, notes that the negotiators consider this formulation to be a “Ukrainian case.”
However, the European Parliament cannot adopt this norm on its own – this step must be taken by the EU executive branch Brussels (European Commission). So far, she has not done this, although there is still time, because the mechanism will begin to operate only in 2026.
At the same time, such decisions are not made in the EU overnight, Politico writes. Negotiations for membership usually continue for years. Integrating EU laws into national legislation is a long process, and the war further complicates the situation.
Sagatom Saha, a research fellow at Columbia University's Center for Global Energy Policy, is surprised that the carbon tax situation is not seen as an urgent issue. He warns that with EU elections approaching, the issue could be delayed for months.
