By mid-2024, the average cost of corporate loans in Ukrainian banks may decrease. This forecast for the Ministry of Finance was made by Yuri Katsion, Deputy Chairman of the Board of Oschadbank for Corporate Business.
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“The cost of lending in the corporate segment is gradually decreasing. The monetary policy prudently pursued by the National Bank has already led to a decrease in the cost of hryvnia lending to 16-18% on the market. If this trend continues with other stable factors, then lending rates could drop to 15-16% by mid-2024,” he said.
Among the risk factors for large businesses, he highlighted the continuation of hostilities, a decrease or delay in the volume of external financing from Ukraine’s international partners and the sustainability of supply chains.
“The greatest risks are the possible loss of production capacity due to hostilities or shelling, and difficulties with export logistics. However, at the moment, sea and river routes are available for the export of products not only from the agricultural sector. The railway tracks are open. Of course, the situation with the long periodic blocking of road routes through Poland is having an impact, but there is hope for solving this problem through political negotiations,” says Katsion.
He also listed to the Ministry of Finance the priority corporate areas for Oschadbank in wartime :
- Financing of major infrastructure projects at the state level and municipalities for the implementation of local investment projects. Support for export-oriented business and financing of enterprises in the processing industry, primarily the agricultural and food industries. Investing in the development of decentralized green generation. Maximum use of the capabilities of international financial organizations in business financing (including co-financing, risk sharing programs, grant support).
A detailed analysis of the latest monetary decisions of the National Bank and credit plans of financial institutions for 2024 can be read in our analysis “The NBU unexpectedly lowered the discount rate for the market: how banks will change lending conditions.”