The National Bank of Ukraine, which previously included in the basic macroeconomic forecast scenario a certain time frame for “significant improvement in the security situation,” abandoned this approach, but will publish an alternative scenario in the inflation report. Interfax-Ukraine writes about this.
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“There is every reason to now focus our attention on the analysis of the economic component. We're really shifting the focus from date to impact. We understand and see that the economy has adapted to a certain extent,” said NBU head Andriy Pyshny at a monetary briefing on April 25.
The previous January macro forecast was based on the assumption of a significant improvement in the security situation from 2025, and this position was confirmed at a monetary briefing in mid-January, while now the National Bank stated that it “allows for a reduction in security risks and a normalization of conditions for the functioning of the economy over the forecast horizon.” , while publishing a forecast up to 2026 inclusive.
“We do not make assumptions regarding the timing and course (of the war). We analyze the macro-financial situation. We note, in particular, that the economy has, to a certain extent, already adapted to the new military conditions… Therefore, we do not predict the course of the war. We are making assumptions about the potential impact of the security situation on economic development,” Pyshny noted.
In his opinion, by and large, this is not fundamentally different from the approach that was used earlier, in comparison with the one used now.
Deputy head of the NBU Sergei Nikolaychuk added that the National Bank never predicted the end of the war, but mainly focused its assessment on the macroeconomic consequences of assumptions about changes in security risks.
“Therefore, in our current communications we are shifting the focus a little, we are not focusing on specific dates regarding when we see a turning point in the dynamics of security risks , but we focus more on the macroeconomic consequences of the gradual normalization of the environment for the functioning of economic agents,” he emphasized.
Nikolaichuk noted that based on this, certain assumptions can be made regarding how the National Bank sees the corresponding evolution of security risks in the base and alternative scenarios, which he intends to publish in the inflation report.