Great volatility on the interbank market is associated with significant inflows of budget funds, which in turn affect the volume of currency purchases. Dmitry Ocheretyany, head of the department of currency and financial transactions and operations on the money market at Sense Bank, spoke about this.
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The past week seemed very volatile for the hryvnia. Thus, at the beginning of last week, one could observe the strengthening of the national currency on the interbank foreign exchange market to 39.20. By the way, the hryvnia has not seen such an indicator since the beginning of April 2024. But after the strengthening of the hryvnia, the dollar rose significantly in price to 39.80 – 39.85.
“Significant volatility on the interbank market is associated with significant inflows of budget funds, which in turn affect the volume of currency purchases on the interbank foreign exchange market of Ukraine” , noted Ocheretyany.
This happened against the backdrop of the traditional presence of the NBU on the interbank market, which during the fourth week sold over $533 million.
“In general, volatility within 1% on the interbank market is a common phenomenon and will be present on the market constantly. The main risk for the national currency in the future will be large budget revenues for banking liquidity,” the expert emphasized.
Despite this, Ocheretyany predicts the strengthening of the hryvnia over the next week.
“Key prerequisites to strengthen the national currency are the same as last week, namely: a tangible need to accumulate hryvnia to pay quarterly taxes and to increase the sale of foreign currency by exporters for this. In this light, the prospect of seeing the hryvnia in the range of 39.00 – 39.20 looks real,” he predicts.
As for the cash exchange rate, it did not react to changes last week and remained at the level of 39 .85 – 39.95, a similar trend is expected this week.