In 2024-2025, a further outflow of migrants abroad is expected (about 400 and 300 thousand people, respectively). This is stated in the NBU Inflation Report for July 2024.
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It is noted that this assumption has been downgraded compared to the April Inflation Report due to the significant disruption to the Ukrainian energy system, which is accompanied by long-term power outages and exacerbates risks for the heating season.
In addition to household difficulties, frequent outages negatively affect production processes, which reduces economic activity and demand for labor, further stimulating migration.
In addition, migration will be caused by a slow normalization of economic conditions due to high security risks.
“Now the negative risks of an even greater outflow of migrants abroad and their smaller and later return prevail. Significant factors in this may be legislative decisions by governments of recipient countries to deepen the integration of Ukrainian migrants in host countries, and their children in the educational systems of host countries and, accordingly, increase the tendency to unite families abroad,” the report says.
Return of Ukrainians
It is expected that the net return of migrants to Ukraine will begin in 2026 and will be gradual (about 400 thousand people), since due to the long duration of stay abroad, adaptation in a new place will increase, and conditions in Ukraine, including due to power supply interruptions, will be more difficult than previously assumed.
IDP
The number of internally displaced persons will also remain significant, since according to surveys, a significant proportion of them have nowhere to return to due to significant damage.
- NBU