Ukraine has exceeded the expectations of its partners in terms of consolidating its capabilities, implementing reforms, and fulfilling its obligations, so international aid will be maintained. This assumption was made by the head of the National Bank, Andriy Pyshny, in a column on Ukrinform.
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International aid
“The NBU assumes a gradual normalization of conditions for economic activity. However, the risks associated with the course of the war are decisive for our forecast. One of the assumptions of the forecast is that international aid will be maintained. Ukraine remains dependent on it, and not because we are not working well. On the contrary, Ukraine has exceeded expectations in terms of consolidating its capabilities, implementing reforms, and fulfilling obligations, which has been repeatedly noted by partners,” Pyshny noted.
He noted that the war unleashed by Russia has caused a need for defense financing, which has led to a colossal increase in budget expenditures.
“A significant part of this year's deficit (about $38 billion) will be very difficult to cover without external financial assistance, despite the successes in activating the domestic debt market, increasing the tax base and the accumulated margin of safety. And we are grateful to the EU, the USA, the IMF and other partners for the support programs already approved,” the head of the NBU emphasized.
However, according to him, financing for the next years cannot yet be called certain, so ongoing work with international partners continues.
“It is critically important for Ukraine to receive at least $31 billion and $21 billion in 2025 and 2026, respectively. We also hope for further positive decisions on the use of Russia's immobilized assets. This will significantly reduce the risks of insufficient funding and is especially important given the elections in partner countries,” Pyshnyy summed up.
Recall
Since the beginning of the full-scale Russian invasion, the Ministry of Finance of Ukraine has attracted about $8.1 billion in budget support from the International Monetary Fund.
In total, since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Ukraine has attracted $85.4 billion in international financial assistance.
- NBU Budget Economy