As of mid-May 2025, Ukraine’s cash currency market shows relative stability. The average dollar selling rate in banks and exchange offices decreased from 41.80 to 41.70 UAH/USD, while the buying rate dropped from 41.20 to 41.12 UAH/USD. The highest recorded selling rate was 41.90 UAH, with the lowest at 41.44 UAH. The euro exchange rate also declined: the average selling rate fell below 47 UAH, and the buying rate almost reached 46 UAH, reports the Baltimore Chronicle.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a gradual increase in the US dollar exchange rate against the hryvnia in the coming years. According to the April World Economic Outlook report, the projected average annual exchange rates are:
- 2025 — 42.5 UAH/USD (previously 45.0 UAH/USD);
- 2026 — 45.6 UAH/USD (previously 46.8 UAH/USD);
- 2027 — 47.5 UAH/USD (previously 48.6 UAH/USD);
- 2028 — 48.9 UAH/USD (previously 50.2 UAH/USD);
- 2029 — 50.1 UAH/USD (previously 51.7 UAH/USD);
- 2030 — 51.6 UAH/USD.
At the same time, the IMF has downgraded Ukraine’s GDP growth forecast for 2025 to 2.0% from the previous 2.5%. GDP is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2026 and by 4.8% in 2027.
The National Bank of Ukraine (NBU) has also released its currency projections. According to the baseline scenario, the average exchange rate will be 42.7 UAH/USD in 2025, 45.5 UAH/USD in 2026, and 47.0 UAH/USD in 2027. The year-end rates are projected at 44.5 UAH/USD for 2025, 46.3 UAH/USD for 2026, and 46.5 UAH/USD for 2027.
Experts from the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE Institute) forecast the hryvnia-dollar exchange rate at just over 43 UAH/USD by the end of 2025. This outlook is supported by NBU interventions on the currency market and foreign aid.
The Ukrainian government, in its 2025 state budget, has set an average exchange rate of 45 UAH/USD. The budget declaration for 2025–2027 anticipates an increase to 46.5 UAH/USD in 2026 and 46.4 UAH/USD in 2027.
Earlier we wrote that NBU raises dollar and euro rates for May 5.