On May 30, 2025, the international rating agency Moody’s confirmed Ukraine’s long-term government ratings in foreign and local currencies at the Ca level with a stable outlook, reports Baltimore Chronicle citing Moody’s.
The Ca rating indicates a very high risk of default. Moody’s notes that the ongoing war with Russia continues to create long-term challenges for Ukraine’s economy and public finances. Even after the 2024 eurobond restructuring, the debt burden remains high and is increasing.
The agency forecasts Ukraine’s economic growth to slow down to 2.5% in 2025 compared to 2.9% in 2024. The budget deficit is expected to increase to 19% of GDP (up from 17% in 2024), and the public debt will exceed 110% of GDP (up from 94% in 2024).
Moody’s also states that liquidity pressures remain significant as import needs far exceed export capacity. The financing gap is mainly covered by external aid.
The agency considers that even if any ceasefire agreement with Russia is reached, substantial economic recovery is unlikely without reliable security guarantees.
Ukraine’s rating may be downgraded further from the current Ca level if the war exacerbates liquidity problems and increases economic pressure. A downgrade is also possible if Ukraine fails to comply with IMF program conditions or pro-Russian political forces come to power.
Earlier we wrote that Moody’s downgrades U.S. rating amid fiscal risks.