ISW analysts noted that Ukraine is likely to be in a significantly improved operational position until June 2024, despite delays the arrival of American aid.
This information was reported by ISW, URA-Inform reports.
That said, Russian military commanders are likely to consider significant changes to the large-scale offensive operation it is expected to launch in June.
“Ukrainian forces will likely use enough U.S. security assistance to contain Russian offensive operations in June 2024, which GUR chief Kirill Budanov recently cited as the likely month when Russian forces launch an expected large-scale summer offensive. The Russian military has likely concluded that Ukrainian forces will not be able to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations due to the delay or complete withdrawal of US military assistance. This assumption appears to have been an integral part of Russia's operational planning this summer,” — the report said.
At the same time, ISW believes that Russian troops are creating operational and strategic level reserves to support their expected summer offensive efforts. However, they are likely doing this based on the assumption that even poorly trained and poorly equipped Russian troops will be able to advance against Ukrainian forces, which do not have the necessary funds for artillery and anti-aircraft ammunition.
In turn, Ukraine also is addressing its own personnel issues and will likely continue to rotate through to rest and replenish degraded units, although in order for these units.
We recall that it was previously reported that the Russian Federation will intensify its offensive at the front in the near future: ISW named the reason.