Western analysts suggest that the active phase of the war in Ukraine may continue for another 3-4 years, but Doctor of Political Sciences, Political expert Maxim Razumny thinks otherwise.
This information was reported by Glavred, reports URA-Inform.
In his opinion, Western experts assess the mobilization and economic potential of the aggressor country, but it should be taken into account that dictator Vladimir Putin is not suicidal and will not continue the war until resources are completely depleted.
In such conditions, even having captured some territories of Ukraine, he will face a lot of problems. Therefore, as Razumny emphasizes, Russia will try to end the war faster.
«Based on these considerations, the hot phase of the war in Ukraine cannot last 3-4 years. I think that it will last a year or two, no more, and then complete futility will force this war to end,” the expert noted.
There are two possible ways: the use of nuclear shuntaa or partial compromises that the West will agree to. It should be understood that the Ukrainian margin of safety, including mobilization and financial resources, is significantly less than that of Russia.
«Therefore, Russia will either try to overcome Ukraine by force, or will offer compromises, to which sooner or later the Ukrainian side will still agree,” Razumny believes.
The expert does not rule out that Russia may promise the West to stop offensive actions and shelling of Ukrainian cities.
«In fact, that's all she has to offer. We see that even territorial concessions, that is, the liberation of certain territories already captured by the Russians, appealing to the Istanbul Declaration and documents that were discussed at the beginning of the war, Russia is not ready to offer us. Because then Putin loses face, because these territories were already included in Russia before. And if, as we have already said, it will be enough for Russia to simply ensure that Ukraine does not join NATO, then the key issue where it will be difficult to reach a compromise is the lifting of sanctions against the Russian Federation,” the expert noted.
Razumny also noted that Putin understands: ending the war while remaining in political and economic isolation will lead to Russia’s defeat in the medium term. Therefore, he will insist on lifting sanctions, using the threat of continuing the war as a lever of pressure.
Recall that it was previously reported that Trump may issue an ultimatum to Putin: how will he back up his demands.