The Economist in The latest forecast reports on the growing chances of Donald Trump returning to the White House.
This was reported by “URA-Inform” with reference to the above-mentioned publication.
For the first time since August, the former US president has overtaken incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris, taking a more favorable position in both national polls and state distribution of electoral votes.
According to the publication's methodology, the probability of Trump's victory is estimated at 54%, which is 6 percentage points higher than the previous week.
Analysts note that the significant improvement in Trump's position is associated with the process of party consolidation. Those voters who previously remained uncertain have begun to support him. There is growing agreement within the Republican Party regarding his leadership, which increases his chances of success both in the primaries and in the general vote.
It is noteworthy that Harris's initial rise in popularity was observed against the backdrop of her nomination as a potential candidate for president from the Democratic Party. However, there was no further increase in support, which gave Trump the opportunity to take the lead.
Recent polls show Trump steadily gaining ground in key swing states, which often become battlegrounds in the final stages of the campaign.
“State polls confirm that Mr Trump has gained some ground in both swing states and across the country,” The Economist notes.
This dynamic shows that Trump is gaining a significant advantage over Harris, as the results in swing states could be a decisive factor in winning.
Interestingly, even in polls that are usually dominated by Democratic sentiment, Trump has managed to close the gap. His campaign is actively working with independent voters and groups that have not previously supported the Republican Party. This strengthens confidence in his possible return to power.
In addition, it was previously reported that Ukraine held secret negotiations with Russia in 2022.