Russian analyst Anatoly Nesmiyan named another reason why the Kremlin needs to curtail its so-called “SVO”.
This was reported by “URA-Inform” with reference to Anatoly Nesmiyan's Telegram channel.
According to Nesmiyan, the Kremlin should wind up the “SVO” to extend the contract for gas transit through Ukraine. The current contract expires at the end of 2024, and Ukraine has already expressed its intention not to extend it, which threatens Russia with the loss of about 15 billion cubic meters of gas passing through Sudzha in the Kursk region. These are supplies that Ukraine controls after the latest offensives, and their loss will significantly affect the Russian economy.
“The Kremlin failed to reach an agreement with China on the “Power of Siberia” 2, and negotiations with Turkey on the “Turkish Stream 2″ have stalled. Therefore, its negotiating position is weak,” he said.
Nesmiyan believes that Putin will try to reach an agreement with the United States on including an extension of gas transit in a future peace agreement. US President-elect Donald Trump will likely use this as leverage on Moscow.
«The bros need money, there's not much room for improvement. And if the OPEC+ agreement goes haywire in January, which Saudi Arabia is clearly leading to, and Trump is openly threatening to drop prices to $40 a barrel, then there's not much room for improvement», — Nesmiyan explained.
He believes that if an agreement is reached, the Kremlin will be able to partially return to the European gas market, albeit in smaller volumes.
«The Kremlin deliberately went for an escalation of the gas conflict with Europe in the hope of a military victory and new conditions dictated from a position of strength. There was no military victory, and therefore it will be necessary to try to preserve at least something,— Nesmiyan summarized.
In turn, Gordon said that Putin is preparing to end the war in Ukraine: important arguments are presented.