In the USA the company Polymarket, known for its accurate forecasts, including predicting Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election, has begun accepting bets on the probability of a nuclear explosion before the end of 2024.
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to TK « ;Lawyer of Law».
It is noted that this is not about a global nuclear war or even a local conflict, but only about the fact of the explosion itself. Western media report that this unusual totalizator has already attracted impressive sums, and its terms are published on the company's official website.
For the terms to be met, one of the following events is sufficient:
— a deliberate nuclear strike (weapon type of significance does not have);
— conducting a nuclear test;
— accidental nuclear explosion.
Any false launches, simulated nuclear weapons use or dirty bomb explosions are excluded from the conditions.
People currently estimate such a chance at 10 %, yesterday the rates reached 18%, when Putin approved the new nuclear doctrine.
It was also reported today that , that the US Embassy in Ukraine warned of a possible serious massive shelling: the date has been named.