The Danish military intelligence service has presented an updated assessment of the potential threat from Russia towards NATO countries. According to this data, Moscow has not yet taken steps that could lead to an open conflict with the Alliance. However, analysts warn that after the end of the war in Ukraine, the Kremlin may restore its military capabilities and prepare for a new confrontation within six months.
This was reported by URA-Inform, citing a report by the Danish Ministry of Defense.
1. Growing military threat and Moscow's strategy
After the outbreak of a full-scale war, Russia launched a large-scale reform of the army, and in 2024 it stepped up the rearmament process. Denmark points out that the Kremlin continues to avoid actions that could provoke NATO into a direct military conflict, but with the changing balance of power, the situation may change.
The intelligence report notes: “Moscow is trying not to cross NATO red lines, but its willingness to take risks may increase in the coming years.”
2. Scenarios for possible escalation
Experts are considering several possible scenarios for how events might develop after the end of the war in Ukraine:
— Six months after the end of hostilities, Russia may regain its strength to wage a local conflict in one of its neighboring countries.
— Within two years, the threat will spread to several states, which will create the preconditions for a regional war, especially in the Baltic Sea region.
— In five years, Moscow may prepare for a larger-scale military campaign against Europe, in which it will not take into account US intervention.
3. NATO rearmament as a deterrent factor
Danish intelligence emphasizes that the level of threat directly depends on the speed of rearmament of the North Atlantic Alliance countries. If NATO does not increase defense budgets and does not accelerate the modernization of the armed forces, the risks may increase significantly.
Also, let us recall what the Ukrainian Armed Forces are saying about the Russian Federation's preparations for a general offensive in the Dnipropetrovsk region.