The situation in Avdiivtsi is approaching catastrophe. The Russian armies will continue to advance, battles are being waged in the Mishka oblivion, and the ZMI increasingly seems to be talking about the threat of withdrawal.
A report about those that are underway in Avdiivtsi, and about the calls that face the Defense Forces and, – in materials RBC-Ukraine.
During the preparation of the material, the following sources were used: information from the General Staff, analysis from the American Institute of Warfare (ISW), maps from the Ukrainian project DeepState, statements from the commander of the operational-strategic united army “Tavria” Oleksandr Tarnavsky, speaker D Metropolitan Likhoviya, head of the Avdiiv military administration Vitaly Barabash, comments from military experts Oleksandr Kovalenka and Oleksandra Musienka.
Zmist
- What is happening in Avdiivtsi
- Chi є the threat is clear: what do military and experts say
- Russian tactics, Ukrainian reinforcement and three scenarios for Avdiivka
- “The burial of Avdiivka will be on the conscience of America.” What to write about in the comments
What is happening in Avdiivtsi
Early last year, the head of the Moscow military administration, Vitaly Barabash, said that single groups of Russian saboteurs would reach Avdiivtsi ki, but there were no such street battles.
“Of course, since the DRG has reached the place, and the boys say, then there is a shooting battle and hostility is developing, which is already street fighting,” – indicating the wine and adding that there is no talk about any great the enemy has a large number of special skills.
However, for several days now, the speaker of the operational-strategic grouped army “Tavria” Dmytro Likhovy has stated that the battles are taking place not only in the private sector but also in the private sector.
“I can confirm that this is so : the fighting is no longer taking place only in the private sector at the last place, but also in the borders of the Great Oblivion. “Iyivsky coke plant and quarry,” he said on air at the telethon.< /em>
Basically, the occupiers storm the lower part in order to cut the main logistic artery. Ukrainian defenders are actively opposing this, the situation is difficult, but it is under control by adding Likhov.
Photo: Russians are actually squeezing Avdiyivka into pincers, advancing from many sides and achieving success overnight ( deepstatemap.live)< /p>
About this and Barabash. In his words, the Russians are trying hard to press on the coke industry through the dacha massif, but the Defense Forces are still having to work out these moments, regardless of the enemy’s multiple superiority in manpower and technology.
“Sometimes I read Telegram- channels, that “Avdiivka has already fallen”. There is definitely no such thing. As someone says so, we are in no danger of the henchmen who are stealing the place. They know what’s wrong. It’s still a long way from the point where “everything is lost,” – saying vin.
Since the beginning of the occupation, there have been more than 800 air bomb strikes, which led to great destruction. Today in Avdiivtsia there is no generally calm place, about 900 civilians are fighting in the basements, protests in the wake of attacks on the rich surfaces are folded like card boxes and there is often no possibility of dissatisfaction and people from under the rubble. As we are able to evacuate those who are willing, the only road to the “great land” is blocked by the enemy.
There is little official information about what is happening in Avdiivtsi and on the approaches. The General Staff is aware of dozens of attacks on localities in the area of the adjacent villages of Tonenka, Nevelske, Novokalinovo, Novobakhmutivka, Berdychi, Lastochkina, etc. The main force – The defense forces will continue to stream the enemy, which does not deprive the attempt to clear the place, and will incur great expenses.
According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Russian troops are pushing into Avdiivka itself for positional battles on the outskirts. So the name “Z-Vyskory” confirms that their forces have never crossed the sickening colonies in the upper part and have become entrenched in the dachas, although there is no independent confirmation of this.
Analysts of the Ukrainian project DeepState consider the situation to be critical and chaotic. The enemy is poking through the streets of Nezalezhnosti and Sapronova between the AKHZ and the quarry. He has frequent success near the Saliznychny bridge, storming positions directly at the road at the entrance to the motor depot, trying to get through the highway, but not facing the costs. The situation is similar on the outskirts, but on the day the enemy is so fanatical that entering into sharpness creates a perimeter defense.
Judging from the maps and the dynamics of the rest of the year, the wedge continues to expand as it exits the coke industry. It is not excluded that the forces of the Ukrainian army in the field have been reduced in order to limit the leakage. Military-political observer of the “Information Against” group Oleksandr Kovalenko can’t learn anything wonderful from anyone
“In fact, we didn’t have enough strength before, there were more Russians. At the same time, they have concentrated there at least 45,000 special forces, and before that they continued to increase the concentration of forces and abilities. In addition, we have much less resources, plus we are limited and in “There are a lot of other moments, for example, in stagnant artillery. From which it is not important to develop secondary fundamentals,” said a commentator from RBC-Ukraine.
According to DeepState, the Russians are no longer able to control the majority at part of Avdiivka. The Ukrainian speakers did not comment, but they are confident that the situation may still change, according to Kerivnik Center for Military Legal Research Oleksandr Musienko.
“Previously, we carried out local campaigns there, tried to push the enemy out at an early rally, and with little success, we got out of the village about 2 square kilometers. But now we have no room for drying. I think it’s buried. I don’t want to talk about active battles and believe that everything is “You can still exchange for our value,” said the expert.
What is the threat of sharpness: what do the experts say
Right now, the leading Russians are located not far from Industrial Avenue, which is the main logistics artery of the Avdiivka garrison. Coming onto the avenue, the occupiers will actually cut the place into two parts, and the defense forces will lie on the half of the road, both in the first and second parts.
That is why in Ukrainian media they are increasingly discussing the possibility of Avdiivka’s extinguishment. According to the words of the speaker of the grouped “Tavria” Dmitry Likhovy, he speaks about the threat of operational withdrawal if the enemy comes closer to the main road at the entrance to AKHZ, which will simplify the supply, logistics and strengthening of our children. While entry is restricted for non-military people, for example, the police cannot enter the place to establish the traces of strikes and casualties.
“The situation is dynamic. “Moreover, wherever you want to reach in order to cut the logistical artery of the supply chain in Avdiivtsi and ensure operational efficiency,” said Likhovy, adding that “the line of communication is collapsing in more than one way, as anyone can atisya.”
< em>Photo: the enemy is close to the point of cutting the main logistic artery, and the field roads will still secure supplies to the Avdiivsky garrison (deepstatemap.live)
Olexandr Kovalenko speaks out: those who We are staying in Avdiivtsi until we are close to witnessing the exodus. Under this term we can understand the species that are isolated from the main group of animals, through which it is impossible to group them or remove them from isolation, otherwise there is room for maneuver. iv.
“The infection cannot be avoided. The cutting of the logistic artery does not at all mean a process of operational and tactful detoxification,” says Vin.
If you open the map, then there is the main road 0542, how to go to India strial < /p>
“Field roads are not the best option for carrying out evacuation, otherwise these roads can be used up. Therefore, food is not worth it. Of course, there is a threat that the Russians will cut 0542 between the place through Chistyakova Street and beyond the others bluntly, ale won't leave yet From this we see that every time Russians enter the avenue, they will be able to withdraw the garrison from both the ground and the deserted sectors to save themselves,” explains the expert.
No matter what actual There is no sharpness, the threats will cease to be serious. In the opinion of Oleksandr Musienko, the Ukrainian side is looking at the Duma as a possible exit from the place, since the enemy has long been hanging from the flanks, and the penetration in Avdiivtsi is creating additional protests.
“Whenever we end up, I don’t see any tragedy in it. In my opinion, our contingent faces three main missions: keeping the enemy away and not allowing the tempo of the offensive operation to develop, so that they won’t go anywhere near the Don Administrators Etsk region; having suffered great losses; in manpower and technology; having drawn on Russian reserves and imposed maximum harm. So for such minds we can say that much has already been achieved. It is immediately clear that it is important for us to repel attacks, it may be impossible to push through and open the flanks. Garni zones are trimmed with the remaining strength, but “The enemy has thrown away almost everything that is possible. I would especially highlight the carved air bombs, which cause significant harm,” he said.
Tactics of the Russians, Ukrainian reinforcement and three scenarios for Avdiivka
Rus Iyski The military also changed their tactics. Whereas previously the stinks acted in small groups of hunters, they now fight for the support of armored vehicles.
“We are desperately targeting the enemy – at any price and as quickly as possible, we want to capture Avdiivka… The enemy is increasingly approaching the assault infantry groups with armored groups,” – Alexander Tarnavsky, appointing the commander of the Tavria groupings.
As riverman Dmitro Likhovy clarified, Avdiivka is being stormed more and more often from captured tanks and infantry combat vehicles. In addition, Russian special forces have been deployed there, and the enemy’s army grouping is undergoing intensive preparation.
Anonymous Telegram publics write about Volodymyr Putin's office, and they want to save the place before the first days of February. Before the elections, you should record a video on this day and vote about the victory of the army. In Musienka’s opinion, the occupiers’ actions are entirely consistent with this logic.
“I can say that the enemy threw everything that may be at Avdiivka. And in this, before speaking, the importance of Bakhmut. When Bakhmut was stormed, the Russian troops stagnated with groups of “Wagnerians”, aviation and units There was no artillery, tanks or infantry fighting vehicles. here the stinks are actively coming out from the armored vehicles. It is possible that they have problems with the assault groups, since the stinks are covered by armor. In any case, they will be able to get a propaganda advantage for Putin, under his choice. And change tactics, otherwise poverty at great cost”, – expert from RBC-Ukraine.
Therefore, in his words, one can see three possible scenarios for Avdiivka. The first is to try to transfer reinforcements and change the situation, to take a place where you can still gain a foothold. The risk is that transferring reserves means wasting money for the ZSU, and the availability of access is still not turned off.
The other is a counterattack from the upper body down the flank in order to remove the pressure on our grouping. It is also associated with singing robes, which requires great strength of military forces, making it possible for the enemy to strike in a very Swedish way.
“The third, as it turns out, is not the most optimal: nevertheless, step-by-step leave Avdiivka and occupy defensive lines in other positions. Which of them will be implemented will lie with the command,” said Musienko.
As for the first scenario, as stated by General Tarnavsky, an adequate response to the enemy’s actions also includes the establishment of additional military positions and the acquisition of fresh forces. Previously, Forbes wrote that there was nothing to say about the transfer of one of the largest combat brigades – the 3rd assault brigade of the ZSU – in an attempt to capture Avdiivka. There is no official confirmation yet. Today, the speaker of the 110th adjacent mechanized brigade, Ivan Sekach, stated that part of their units had already been promoted to rank and rotation within two days.
“Indeed, it has arrived Captivity. I don't tell him “What the hell is this? Aloha, this is a strong push, we felt so calm for a little while now that she came,” adding Vin.
By some means, the Defense Forces transferred new reserves there, and they are deprived of critical supplies. Expert Musienko admits that things may become clearer in the near future.
“The burial of Avdiivka will be on the conscience of America.” What to write about in the comments
Last year, the British newspaper The Telegraph published an article about Avdiivka. About those who do not care about huge expenses, Putin’s army can hardly ask those who have lost their place. In this case, the value of Avdiivka, like before Bakhmut, is rather symbolic, less strategic. If the Russians take the mountain in this area, then the advance of victory will no longer amount to brute military force. Besides, it’s not the food – there’s a reason for that. The fact that the defense forces have been weakened by two forces of uninterrupted fighting, and the fact that Russia has an advantage through the short-term support of Ukraine’s allies.
The blocking of military aid packages from the United States led to a catastrophic waste of artillery on the front line, especially near Avdiivka. In the meantime, the airborne parity has been preserved, but at the same time the occupiers will fire five shells per Ukrainian.
“It’s clear that Avdiivka will fall, so it will be the province of America. After a long time, the ZSU will run out of everything, and the Europeans have not been able to increase their capabilities to compensate for this loss. Mostly – due to the shortage of artillery ammunition and missiles,” – suggest to The Telegraph the great British defense attache in the Baltic countries and ex-rador of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine Glen Grant.
Olexandr Musienko is good, because it is time to support partners in artillery and ammunition the necessary services could have gone wrong the Russians' attack on Avdiivka.
“At such times we need more armor, we have problems with artillery and mines. But this is not the fault of America, but of other American politicians. these parts The Republican Party, which is oriented towards Donald Trump, is blocking food supply for 60 billion dollars, which is due to their own fault,” he said.
RBC-Ukraine experts do not provide experts , for How can you radically correct the situation? One thing is obvious – the next few days and the next few days may be very rewarding for Avdiivka.
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