The International Monetary Fund has updated the base and negative scenario for Ukraine. The negative scenario assumes that, through the intensification of the war, the shock to the economy will begin in the next quarter of 2024.
This is reported by RBC-Ukraine in its submission to the Memorandum from the IMF.
“Vidpov Even before politics The IMF, in addition to the high level of unimportance of lending in the minds of the staff, has updated the scenario of a deterioration in the situation, relying on the assumption that in 2025 the war will be more intense,” he voiced in response. i.
The negative scenario is that the war will end before the end of 2025 leveled at the end of 2024 to the base scenario. In this case, “the shock will arise in another quarter of 2024” through the intensification of the war.
“This will lead to a sharp decline in real GDP by 4% in 2024 (compared to an increase of 3-4% in the base scenario) and zero growth in 2025,” reads the document.
In this case The IMF's decline in the economy under the negative scenario fell in line with the forecast for early 2023, when the fund estimated a fall in GDP of 5%.
The IMF's base case scenario remains unchanged and projects lower inflation.
According to the negative scenario of the IMF, the intensification of the war will affect the mood of households, the rate of return of migrants and will lead to the collapse of the infrastructure as a result of the shocks.
Due to high military needs in defense, which are being saved, and a decrease in economic activity, the budget deficit will continue to increase in 2024-2025, and then will continue to slow down. p>
“Imbalances in the foreign exchange market are coming to the surface again “And, as it turns out, we will save even more, and the increase in export indicators will lead to a higher nominal value in the near future, first of all we will get closer to the underlying trend,” the IMF predicts.
Further updates will be more streamlined, lower than the base scenario, causing even greater damage to the fixed capital and weakening of balance sheets, which will result in the production of a significantly lower income than the pre-war level.
Updates of the aggregate debit The financial surplus in the negative scenario is estimated at approximately 140 .6 billion dollars, which is approximately 19 billion dollars more than the base forecast for 2023-2027 (121.8 billion dollars), which provides additional funds to ensure the stability of the government.
Reaction of the Ukrainian authorities
As the IMF notes, since the beginning of the war, Ukraine's government has been critically approaching the turmoil in the world, carefully balancing the need for a quick and effective response with material social issues. baths. These included a number of steps, including the optimization of capital expenditures and other minor priority items of expenditure, the use of additional financing and the implementation of critical expenditures to support financial stability and protect foreign exchange reserves, including those under additional exchange control.
“Springing on “In view of the effective management of the economy, the government, as before, is ready to respond decisively to a potential scenario of worsening the situation through prompt political approaches,” the document reads.
On It seems that the International Monetary Fund will be allocated for Ukraine in 2023 Three scenarios are based on the triviality of war: basic, negative and positive. The negative scenario conveyed the intensification of military operations and the fall of the economy by 5% in 2024.
It is significant that the base scenario for the NBU macro forecast also conveys a significant decrease in security risks in Ukraine region from 2025.