The fighting in the Kursk region led to Russia losing control of the gas station u (DHW) “Suja”. This is the single point of entry into the gas transportation system of Ukraine, through which Russian gas is delivered in transit to Europe.
Report on those that pose a threat to the pre-line implementation of transit – in the material of RBC-Ukraine.
Zmіst
- What is available at the Sudzha hot water station
- What's going on with the facility
- What's going on with the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine
- What's going on with gas prices on the European market
- Is the Kursk AES coming?< /li>
What is on display at the Sudzha hot water station
The first to report the loss of control over the Sudzha station on the 7th sickle was the pro-military Telegram channel “Ribar”, close to the Russian Ministry of Defense. On the evening of that day, the information was confirmed by documentary evidence from the Kursk region.
The object itself is paid for several hundred meters from the same checkpoint at the border. Judging by the map of the Institute of War (ISW), compiled on the basis of geolocated frames, the Russian side does not control the territory for tens of kilometers.
Previously, an anonymous source from President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed to The Washington Post the activity of Ukrainian forces on the territory of the Russian Federation and burials covering an area of approximately 100 square meters. kilometers “In three days, having designated Zelensky’s leader, the Ukrainian military reached out to every place with thousands of people, took hundreds of troops and buried the gas treatment station, which Russia Vikoristova used for energy operations in Ugorshchina and Slovachino yu”, – write WP.
The Center for Information Resilience (CIR), a British analytical non-profit organization, has reported significant violations at the border checkpoint. However, we cannot visually evaluate the charges at the Sudzha hot water supply system.
“With confirmed CIR footage of a number of Russian soldiers standing guard at the entrance to the gas station, it is clear that the station was damaged, but at the moment the damage cannot be verified,” at the head of analysts for Reuters.
Officially, neither Ukrainian military nor Vlad spoke out about control over “Sudzheya”. As well as about other details of the operation in the Kursk region.
From the military’s point of view, control over the gas station is not of vital importance, according to expert and senior riverman of the ZSU General Staff Vladislav Seleznyov. This poses a threat to the transit of Russian gas, for which Ukraine is deducting money that covers the costs of repairing the entire gas transportation system. In other words, the Ukrainian army is unlikely to act in such a manner as to blackmail the Russians with a “gas valve.”
“This story can be seen more from the emotional-political warehouse. The Russians are beginning to realize that the war is not here, but on their territory. They want that the military column was broken up near the settlement of I’ll call Mazepino a sheep, I’m guessing, put under food, “The Kursk region is a peaceful Russian land in a historical context,” he says ironically.
What did you get behind the object
Through the Sudzha station pass the main gas pipeline Urengoy – Pomari – Uzhgorod. This is the key and the only effective route for the transit of Russian gas to the European Union through Ukraine.
In fact, the Sudzha hot water station is a border point for gas from Russia. Passing through this city, it flows to the Ukrainian gas transportation system, then to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria. About 14.65 billion cubic meters were pumped through the station, or about half of all Russian gas exports to Europe.
The main function of a gas measuring station is the flow of gas and the production of clear indicators. It is not excluded that the loss of control over “Sudzha” could become a driver for the imposition of supply to “Gazprom”.
For example, as the conflict with Ukraine is due in 2022. At the same time, force majeure was deafening for the Russian invasion in the Lugansk region. The Ukrtransgaz company imposed transit through the loss of operational control over the Novopskov compressor station, as gas was lost from the Sokhranovka hot water supply system in the Rostov region of the Russian Federation.
Ukraine is on the right side of danger, which could be completely irrational. It cannot be ignored that Russia is daring to fully implement transit, says Volodymyr Omelchenko, director of energy programs at the Razumkov Center.
“I don’t expect any profit for Ukraine because “unseen armored formations” can shut off the valve at Sudzhi. I respect that everything is not speculation. Why bother, since Ukraine could have already Anna turn off the valve their GTS? The Europeans didn’t bother anyone, and some of the partners were unable to immediately ensure the diversification of gas supplies,” he said with Russia’s RBC-Ukraine.
What about the transit of Russian gas? gas through Ukraine
Regardless of the situation in the Kursk region, transit through Ukraine is carried out under normal conditions.
“Gas transportation to European gas suppliers is carried out under normal conditions, without changes . The nominations have been confirmed, the physical flow of gas is being saved,” the GTS operator told RBC-Ukraine on the 7th sickle.
The work of the gas corridor was confirmed by the Minister of Energy German Galushchenko. According to him, the Russian side did not communicate with Ukraine due to the transit situation, writes Reuters. According to the agency, the Russian Gazprom does not plan to accept supplies. Although previously 42 billion cubic meters were pumped through Sudzha for production (within the framework of the requirement for river supplies of 14 billion cubic meters), then a slight reduction in obligations is immediately indicated.
As stated by Gazprom representative Sergiy Kupriyanov, the request for Wednesday was 39.4 million cubic meters, for the fourth – 37.3 million, which is 12% lower than before the initial level. On Friday, deliveries will increase to 38.5 million cubic meters. According to the latest data from the European information platform ENTSOG, the physical flow leaving Ukraine is no longer uninterrupted, and transit may increase on Friday.
In addition, according to ENTSOG data, slight decreases in the flow of Russian gas in the range of 5-10% were also recorded during the 6th sickle. This may be due to the reduction in prices you will receive in the bedroom in Europe. Zokrema, the cloudy weather has passed there, and the activity of the operating air conditioners and ventilation systems has also subsided.
Today, the GTS operator again stated that transit will take place in the normal mode, nominations are confirmed by give gas to European law enforcement officials is saved. And Gazprom, which first commented on the developments in the Kursk region, noted that they themselves have led to a peak in exchange prices.
Gazprom does not accept deliveries, so it’s completely unclear. After the large-scale invasion of Ukraine, we spent 90% of the EU market, which became the main recipient. And today there are concerns about withdrawing budgetary support of hundreds of billions of rubles, explains Omelchenko.
“The cost of the supply route through Ukraine to Slovakia, the Czech Republic and Austria will save Gazprom close to 6 billion euros. And the situation will become absolutely catastrophic: we will end up with wasted bottles, frozen drills, and great economic losses. Russia has little choice – boost exports, spend Sverdlovsk Zahidny Siberia has great cash or continue supplies,” – like an expert.
At the same time, in my opinion, it is not included that the Russian side will speed up the pumping. And also to Ukraine in the buried hot water supply system “Sudzha” and the valves are blocked, through which Gazprom cannot conclude contractual obligations in a permanent relationship.
“Europe has pressed so that the operation in the Kursk region has begun. I think such an IPSO could be carried out by the Kremlin,” he added.
What about gas prices on the European market
I want it to be uncontrollable by Russia village The gas pipeline will be deprived of information, and the European market remains unnerved.
According to Bloomberg, gas futures grew by 2.6% – up to 39 euros per MW*year, to the highest Breast show 2023 Roku. Over two additional periods, prices on the TTF hub increased to 40.1 euros per MW*year.
The contract for the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine expires in 2024, but the completion of the contract will come as a shock, and the remaining parts of Central Europe will still lie on the Ukrainian route.
At the moment, it is important to forecast zuvati, scho there will be prices. As Volodymyr Omelchenko explains, on the one hand, Ukraine guarantees supplies under the contract, otherwise the Kremlin can give a command to implement it.
It is important that political statements are already coming. The forward-looking Minister of Economy of Slovakia, Karel Herman, admitted that the fighting in the Kursk region would threaten the immediate transit. “Russian gas supplies are rapidly decreasing. My warning about the fact that supplies of Russian gas through Ukraine to Slovakia are under a serious threat is confirmed,” he wrote on Facebook.
However, if there are threats And yes, then not from Ukraine, Omelchenko’s conversions.
“In my opinion, there are no such threats on our side. But, of course, we don’t know what the Kremlin strategists will come up with,” the spyvrozmovnik added.
Is the meta coming – Kursk AES?
Near the gas station, there are other important objects in the Sudzhansky district. This includes a 330 kV substation, which previously connected the Kursk nuclear power plant to the energy system of Ukraine, as well as a connection from the nuclear power plant to the Belgorod region.
During the operation, it was reported that Kurchatov, where I know nuclear power plant. Behind the words v.o. Governor Andriy Smirnov, in whose district two missiles were hit.
On the morning of the 9th sickle, with the support of the Russian media resource “Important Stories”, the battle zone extended to 800 square meters. kilometers Telegram channels write in panic that Ukrainian forces can break through to Kurchatov along the route from Sudzhi. The view from the nearest place of combat operations is close to 50 km, according to other data, close to 30 km.
The recent raid on Kursk is reported to be a strong gloomy secret place behind the shadows of the “fog of war”. The Economist writes to the General Staff of the ZSU that control over the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant at the disposal of the Zaporizka Nuclear Power Plant in Yenergodar is of little importance, since more forces will be required and a march to 80 km from the angle of Russian loss toria. “Without the proper order of organized forces, we will repeat the death of the Russians who set off on the march from Kiev in 2022. We cut them off from the line, and the stink began to grow,” quotes The Economist.
Omelchenko does not add any logic to Ukrainian control over the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant.
“As for me, there are more foreign political risks, less advantages. How can we manage, who is worth it? It’s unknown. We can’t copy Russian terrorists, those who make a stink about our Zaporizhzhya AES. In my opinion, the main plan is the strategy of insignificance. Without knowing what the next steps will be, shut off the valve at Sudzhi or destroy the Kursk Nuclear Power Plant? The enemy will be at the mercy of uncertainty and there will be hesitation to transfer troops from the front line to all unsafe directions,” said the spyvrozmovnik.
Vyskovsky expert Vladislav Seleznyov doubts that Ukraine How can we manage to control the hot water supply “Sudzha” Chi Kursk AES. The main mission is in another way.
“It is aimed at creating the most inhumane minds possible, preventing Russia from being transferred and without that sharing of resources from our day and immediately, easing the pressure on our Vovchansk. And our army is as efficient as possible. And since the interaction between aviation, air defense systems and artillery, the work here is ideal,” he added.
In preparation for the material by Vikorist fell: Information from Russian Telegram channels, publications from The Washington Post, Reuters, Bloomberg and The Economist, statements from Gazprom and the Ukrainian GTS Operator, comments from energy expert Volodymyr Omelchenko and military expert Vladislav Seleznyov. >
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