The Russian army will try to implement low-level scenarios for the evacuation of the population in the Kursk region, which ZSU took control prolongation of the remaining days.
RBC-Ukraine informs about this in a message to the Institute of Foreign War (ISW).
The Ukrainian transcordon mechanized offensive operation in the Kursk region, which began on the 6th sickle, will continue as part of the Ukrainian operational efforts on the territory of Russia. The Institute for the Prevention of War was determined to evaluate the intentions of this ZSU operation, so as not to jeopardize the operational security of Ukraine.
At the same time, ISW recorded geolocation surveys and statements of Russian plantings sheep indicate that the 8th sickle of the Ukrainian army continued to dry up the Swede deep into the Kursk region. According to reports, the Ukrainian military action is already at a distance of 35 kilometers from the international cordon with the Sumy region.
“However, the Ukrainian forces, insanely, do not control the entire territory within the limits of Russia’s maximalist statements about the entry of Ukrainian troops into the Kursk region,” says the source.
Moscow is trying to reverse control
ISW analysts have concluded that the Kremlin may soon be ready to take control of the territory in the region where the Ukrainian troops have entered, and will begin to push the ZSU deeper into Russia. The Institute respects that the withdrawal of the Ukrainian military would be a strategic blow to the rich gains of the Russian dictator Volodymyr Putin, directly aimed at consolidating the decline in Russian stability and security and geopolitical revival.
Looking at the situation and information from Russia, The Russian military command has very few options for responding to the ZSU operation in the Kursk region. ISW is not ready to assess which of these possible scenarios is the most likely and does not include that the Russian command may be interested in at least one option.
The decision of the military commands of the Russian Federation is based on the numerical strength and capacity of the ZSU in this area, for which the Institute of War does not give the same estimates.
Main scenarios of the Russian Federation's response
Scenes Aria 1: The Russian military command can remove obvious conscripts, border guards The Federal Security Service (FSB), the Russian Guard and other irregular forces that have already been deployed in the area of the international cordon, in order to press Ukrainian troops will be destroyed as a result of their operation in the Kursk region.
Scenario 2: The military command of the Russian Federation may ignite the Russian-Ukrainian cordon of the Ukrainian united forces to respond to the Ukrainian offensive.
Scenario 3: The military command of the army The rubbish may be redeployed for the planned surge in operational reserves in 2024 , and/or it is clear that more battle-ready advanced units have reached the Kursk region from other areas of the theater of military operations.
Scenario 4: The military command of the Russian Federation can help save the forces that are currently in the region. The aggressor can also redeploy a significant number of aircraft and attack aircraft there in order to promote Russia’s ability to conquer the territory.
The name also indicates that There is a certain reaction of Russia to the Ukrainian invasion of the Kursk region and the fluidity of the release of the ZSU indicates that that the Ukrainian forces “were able to achieve operational resistance to the border with Russia.”
Key findings
- “Ukrainian mechanized offensive operation,” as indicated by ISW, on the territory of the Kursk region, as the 6th sickle was launched, is part of the Ukrainian operation on the territory of Russia.
- Geolocation Foreign personnel and Russian officials announced to testify about those who are about to Ukrainian forces kept the Swedes out of the Kursk region on the 8th sickle, and Ukrainian forces are reported to be present in areas up to 35 kilometers from the international cordon with the Sumy region. There is no doubt that the “Ukrainian military” will not control the entire territory “within the maximum advantage of Russia before the penetration of Ukraine into the Kursk region.”
- The presence of a certain type of Russia in the “Ukrainian invasion” in the Kursk region and the declared certainty of any Ukrainian invasion indicate that “Ukrainian forces were able to achieve rapid disintegration Don from Russia.
- Ukrainian officials have not yet commented directly “Ukraine's operation” in the Kursk region.
- US officials noted that Ukraine’s controversial “operation” in the Kursk region does not violate the US obligation to launch strikes against military targets in the border regions of Russia.
tsіya in the Kursk region
On the cob of the year , as they asserted the ZMI, the Ukrainian forces of Ukraine crossed the power cordon from Russia and began to invade and take control of the border areas of the Kursk region.
Only for the first favor, Ukrainian troops occupied about 30 kilometers of Russian territory.
Zokrem, the Ukrainian army took control of the gas station near the Sudzha site.
During three days of the operation, the They spent 350 square kilometers of the territory of the Kursk region.
The operation does not disrupt the US border so as to allow Ukraine to launch strikes against military targets in areas bordering Russia.
U The Pentagon does not care about the escalation of taking control of populated areas near the Kursk region.
For more details about the situation in the Russian region, see the material from RBC-Ukraine.
Terminov is important and information about the war Read Russia versus Ukraine on theRBC-Ukraine channel on Telegram.