Уряд Росії прогнозує зниження доходів від продажу нафти та газу протягом наступних трьох років. This will happen through lower energy prices and a softer supply regime for Gazprom.
This is reported by RBC-Ukraine via Bloomberg.
Along with the draft tri-tier budget, As the agency has learned, the Kremlin’s finances are expected to decline by 14% between 2024 and 2027, due to the war against Ukraine and Moscow’s growing losses.
According to forecasts, the Russian naftogaz company may contribute 10.94 trillion rubles (118 billion dollars) in contributions to the sovereign treasury of the coming fate. The price will be 3.3% less than the forecast for 2024. It appears that river revenues will continue to decline over the next two years, reaching 9.77 trillion rubles in 2027, show documents.
The flow of naftodolars helps the Kremlin continue its military aggression against Ukraine for the third time, despite the fact that the western countries sent billions of dollars of military aid to Kiev and sent a number of sanctions aimed at limiting Russia's income from energy exports. Russia bypassed the crisis by recruiting a dark fleet of tankers to deliver oil and liquefied gas to new clients in Asia.
Remaining forecasts for a decline in income support weakening global energy markets. It turns out that the average export price for Russian syringe naphtha will fall below 70 dollars per barrel from now on. It appears that average contract prices for gas exports from the country will also decrease until 2027.
https://www.bloomberg.com/
In the long term, naphtha may become even cheaper, the remaining fuel will be shortened, and new energy sources will become more popular. The documents praise the strength of OPEC+, opposed to Saudi Arabia and Russia, in order to restore the balance on naphtha markets by shortening the production window.
Reduced taxes
Another factor that is consistent with the projected decline in Russian budget revenues due to the sale of oil and gas is the plan to withdraw additional tax revenue from Gazprom, which for a long time has been the main source of costs for the government.
After invading Ukraine, the Russian gas giant cut off most of its pipeline exports to Europe, which had previously been its largest overseas market. The decision led to the first pure profits for Gazprom since the beginning of the century in 2023. The government has provided the plant with a gas supply to the generator, and will receive an additional 50 billion rubles from the company in the period from 2023 to 2025.
Documents show that there is now a plan Much relief from tax revenue for Gazprom. As soon as it is adopted, the soft fiscal regime will shorten Russia's supply of gas by 30% less than in the future, up to three more than 1 trillion rubles in 2025, the bottom of Bloomberg's projects, based on tribute to the project.
However, subsidies may promote financial results for Gazprom, which has begun to embrace the beginnings of its fate. Gazprom will resume paying dividends, which can compensate for part of the decline in government revenues, since the country is the largest shareholder of the company.
It seems likely that Russia plans to increase its spend a quarter to 142 billion dollars in 2025. In 2025, spending on “national defense and internal security” will amount to approximately 40% of the total budgetary obligation of the Russian Federation budget. More money will be spent on lighting, health protection, social policy and the national economy at once.