Russian karbovanets falls to 100 per dollar. At the same time, the government seems to have come to terms with this, so as not to allow him to reach his rivals, who had previously provoked a violent political reaction.
RBC-Ukraine reports about this from reports on Bloomberg.
Yak The agency notes that the weakening of the ruble does not immediately cause concern, and is intended to benefit the state budget against the backdrop of plans to increase the incidence of the upcoming crisis, said two anonymous officials informed about the situation. Officials are ready to allow the ruble to reach 100 dollars per dollar, they said.
The Bank of Russia relied on interbank transactions to depreciate the ruble exchange rate since the Moscow Exchange began trading in dollars and euros after the United States imposed sanctions against this group in the first place. The crackdown has exacerbated foreign currency shortages, and central bank data show the ruble is now about 9% weaker. An extreme term for companies that are planning to exit from operations on the stock exchange after the 12th day.
“In the current situation, 100 rubles per dollar is not so scary, although there may be some information glamorous effect,” – I appreciate it High-ranking member of the Bank of Russia Oleg V'yugin.
The ruble also fell over the same period of the Chinese yuan, which became the leading alternative to the Kremlin's reliance on “toxic” currencies since President Volodymyr Putin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 prompted large-scale sanctions from the US and Their allies. The Russian currency fell 11% to the yuan on the Moscow Exchange to 13.26, the lowest level since last month.
Torik karbovanets two days breaking through 100 per dollar. The central bank responded by raising the key interest rate by 350 basis points at a day-by-day meeting at the heart of the past. Then, under strict capital control, 43 groups of exporters are forced to repatriate 80% of their foreign exchange earnings and sell as much as possible for rubles on the domestic market.
Forecasts of the Ministry of Economy show that the government is planning a weaker currency: officials expect that in 2025 the average exchange rate will become 96.5 rubles per dollar, equal to 91.2 rubles of the current rate.
Problems with payments
Recent weakening of the ruble to display Difficulties with foreign trade payments, which affect importers and exporters, says Dmitro Polovy, investment director of the Moscow company Astra Asset Management.
With the growing threat of second sanctions from the United States and banks of Russia's key trading partners, businesses are facing growing difficulties with payments. Now they will take less foreign currency and there may be more problems with their return to Russia from countries such as China and Turkey.
The order of reacting to the changes in arrivals that supported karbovanets. Obov'yazkov's conversion of export proceeds was reduced by half from 50% to 25%. This followed decisions to reduce benefits until the repatriation of income to 60% from Chernya, and then to 40% after a month.
“A number of concerns are coming to the attention of exporters,” says Natalia Milchakova, an analyst at Freedom Finance Global in Kazakhstan.
According to data from the Bank of Russia, in the spring, currency sales by the largest Russian exporters fell by 30%, equal to the previous year. Every month through most parts roubles.
Immediately after the start of the war, the ruble weakened to about 120 per dollar, only to quickly recover, as the central bank urgently moved the key rate higher increase to 20%, and then begin to soften them step by step.
At once the rate will again become 19%, and it can return to this peak level of the current period, leaving the central bank to cool down the overheated Russian economy and streaming Inflation is expected to accelerate, as the target figure is more than double the target of 4%.
According to analyst Milchakova, the bank will have to increase the penny credit policy to compensate for the side effects of a weak ruble in the face of high inflation. For the budget, a low exchange rate is always beneficial, V’yugin is important.