Experts from the International Monetary Fund updated their forecast for the severity of Russia's war against Ukraine. The lines of the end of intensive military operations were posted on the river.
This is reported by RBC-Ukraine in its submission to the Memorandum from the IMF.
“In the updated baseline scenario, the war will come to a stop new quarter 2025, “If we fix a strong galmic influx, then Ukraine can promote peaceful (economical) growth,” the document reads.
In the draft IMF, the base scenario predicted the end of the war around 2024, and the end of the war around 2025, giving a negative forecast to the fund.
In the end, the base scenario conveys that the outbreak of war will concentrated in areas due to already reduced economic activity due to the situation with safety.
Wanting to deprive growth of positive, intelligent updates, the troubling war transmits a negative influx to economic indicators through greater permanent insignificance, shortage of labor, pressure on imports, defense and repair ties, and Iku population, go in the memorandum.
Baseline scenario for 2024
In reality, GDP growth in 2024 is projected to be around 3%. Growth is likely to increase modestly in the third quarter, with early harvests and robust exports offsetting the negative influx of energy shortages. The economy will recover even more in the fourth quarter due to the energy deficit, which is growing, due to the high water supply during the fall season, the IMF predicts.
The IMF estimates the winter energy deficit at 3-4 GW, “corresponds to the assessments of other parties “, in which negative risks through missile attacks and seasonal factors are taken into account, is stated in the memorandum.
Inflation will continue to increase to 9% (p/p) to the chest, with a sharp increase in the prices of generators (most importantly with additional energy) and labor costs.
The current sector has high demand for imports of energy and defense products, a weak harvest will significantly compensate for the improvement in the situation due to the restructuring of Eurobonds and to alleviate the deficit in the flow of ahunka to 14.9 billion dollars (8.1%). According to the forecast, current external financing will increase gross international reserves to 42.6 billion dollars.
Baseline scenario for 2025
In reality, GDP renewal is expected to be higher (2.5-3.5% p/p, 2-3 pp lower, lower than the previous forecast) through a longer war. Inflation will fall to 7.5% before the end of the year due to the weakening of the vice grip. It is expected that the deficit in the current market will increase to 27.1 billion dollars (14.3% of GDP) through persistent import demand, adding to the labor shortage in export production and the shortfall in grants that dominate We will pour in the influx of stable shipping, private transfers and restructuring of the borg .
Regardless of the decline in the flow rate, the decline in net direct foreign investment and the increase in ready currency exchange rates by banks due to the inaccuracies associated with the war, gross reserves will increase to 44.9 billion dollars in support of external financing, the IMF predicts.
Post-war period
According to the IMF forecast, the post-war period will be aggravated by scars from the greater war, but The mid-century outlook is based on a strong program of reforms in roads before accession to the EU, as well as partial reconstruction.
The greater increase in post-war population growth in the updated baseline forecast reflects an increased return of migrants, which will lead to greater long-term population loss.
With the update in the baseline forecast, transfer є cumulative loss of real GDP by 2% until 2027 (і by 2 .7% until 2033) according to the forecast for the month.
“However, the growth potential remains generally unchanged, as far as investment flows and “The overall productivity of factors (the collapse of decisive reforms, reconstruction efforts and replacement) will dominate over the unpleasant influx of a large war on fixed capital and labor force,” the forecast goes.
It is likely that donation to the Razumkov Center, In the spring of 2024, 83% of respondents believe that Ukraine will win the war with Russia.
Among the respondents who believe that we will win, 39% believe that it will come in 1-2 years, 19.5% – what will come before the end of this fate, 15% – what will require 3 to 5 fates, 5% – more than 5 fates, 2% – what will be achieved “most likely in my lifetime.”