Last year, kava prices on the New York exchange set a historical record for the month 50 rocks. This became possible through increasing efforts to combat the global shortage of product supply through environmental factors in Brazil and Vietnam. With this climate change, the most popular variety of kava was put on hold.
About the rise in price and the effect on the kava market in Ukraine and the world – read in the review of the RBC-Ukraine journalist Alika Sakhna.
Zmist:
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The price of cavy on world markets is a record
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Yak tse vpline to the cavo market in Ukraine
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From which countries should we bring kava to Ukraine?
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Arabica has hit the mark
Brazil accounts for 40% of the world's rinku kavi. This region produces both Arabica and Robusta. While Vietnam, which sits next to the duties of cava export, also specializes in the less expensive variety of cava – robusta. During the past season, Vietnam recorded 38% of the light production of this variety of kavi.
Prices are soaring due to problems with two key exporters, making kava one of the “hottest” goods in the world. The record-breaking fervor of kava contrasts with the low wholesale prices for food products on light markets, which are set at the lowest prices for the beginning of 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Because of this, they are called “soft goods” because kava, cocoa and orange juice show the best results among cheese products.
The price of kava on world markets is breaking records
Volcafe, one of the largest trading companies of kava grain in the world, has lowered its forecasts for the production of Arabica kava (Coffea arabica) in Brazil. This happened after analyzing the remains of dry dry land in this region, reports Bloomberg.
Volcafe's forecasts are based on a study of 1850 farming kingdoms in Brazil, which showed a serious influx of dry land that lasted from winter until spring. It blew out the vines in the soil, caused leaves to fall, and those trees that had bloomed were unable to produce fruit.
According to forecasts, until the end of the growing season, which will bloom 1 year By 2024 and ending on 30 June 2025, Brazil will produce more than 34.4 million arabica beans (one bag of cava will produce 60 kilograms). The price is 11 million mice less, lower than in the spring.
To put it into perspective, according to the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), last season Brazil produced as many as 45 million mice. This situation threatens to cause a global shortage of cavy of 8.5 million bags in the 2025–2026 season. This will result in an unprecedented fifth fate, if you drink this proposition.
On Tuesday, 10 breasts, futures for Arabica increased by 4.7% and reached 3.44 dollars per pound (0.45 kg), or 7.58 dollars per kilogram. The price is 80% lower at lower prices. The stench exceeded the historical maximum of 1977 when the market was shaken by the effects of frost in 1975, which depleted the cava trees in Brazil. Even though the price was 7.50 dollars per kilogram, due to inflation, it was still a cash price.
It is important that futures are financial contracts that require buy or sell a single quantity of goods (from which product is available) for a fixed price at the moment of the moment. It is an important tool for market stabilization, which allows one to predict prices, change risks and ensure liquidity in the industry.
In 2024, the world's largest grower of robusta (Coffea robusta) will drink on Arabica coffee, suffering from dryness during the growing season, and suffering from dryness during harvesting, and from strong crops. board As a result, according to The Daily Mirror, the price for robusta, based on leaf fall, reached a record 5,694 dollars per metric ton.
A series of recent wars in the wire-growing countries caused a depletion of the light reserves of kava for the rest of the years. Increasing prices for kava pushes up costs for servicing and sales, causing companies to pass on costs to their employees. It turns out that many sellers around the world have already raised prices and cut discounts in order to save profitability.
As a result of this on the Ukrainian coffee market
International kavi expert, champion of Great Britain and finalist of the World Championship of Kawi Cooking Vadim Granovsky in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine said that the Ukrainian market is reacting accordingly the world has been “changing the rules” for many months. The expert also noted that the rise in price of the product is gradually going to cover all segments of the ham kava industry – from uncoated grain to the preparation of a cup of kava from the skin.
“There are a number of great importers of green kava grain in Ukraine. They are clearly aware of rising prices, and we want to be sure to save basic prices on reserves until the end of the day. Markets that work on fixed contracts can quickly flatten prices, and even after one season (around the next week) the changes will become noticeable to people in supermarkets and in mortgages,” explained Granovsky.
Spokesperson for Escobar Coffee Roasters Andriy Titov explains for RBC-Ukraine that between two years and two months will pass from the moment prices increase in light markets to their influx into Ukraine. During this hour, there will be obvious reserves of kava, which, according to the expert, were in short supply, but they did not rush to renew the perceived lower prices, which never materialized.
“Lubricants Prices are already starting to rise, and until the end of the day, prices for people with food will become abnormally high. For example, a cup of espresso, which costs about 40-45 hryvnia, will rise in price to 70 hryvnia. 60 hryvnia, zrostut prices up to 100 hryvnia. The goal for the final buyer is the growth rate of 80-100%,” he adds.
Titov predicts that high prices for kava will likely remain until the onset of doom. Partially cheaper prices can be found only after harvesting crops in Brazil, which will turn into cherries. Prote, in my opinion, the reduction will be insignificant – by a maximum of 20%.
The Leader Coffee company, which is engaged in the wholesale trade of kava, reported that the price of the product began to increase even further. Zokrema, from spring to summer, kava has risen in price by 15-20%, and by the end of 2024 the price of the product will increase by 50%. The company adds that the price of cava on the Ukrainian market can be reduced by half.
Vadim Granovskyy says that small independent cafés can independently purchase greenery What is the grain, try to keep prices at the same level above others, so as not to waste customers and not end up in overruns. In this case, there was a large number of such deposits, he explains, that the savings in the old price of kava would be compensated for, so that they would buy more cheap grain, which would appear on the savory berries.
Also, change the way to automate processes and improve day-to-day management, which allows you to use less energy and water. At the same time, as Granovsky notes, this may have a negative impact on the atmosphere and hospitality, the remains of the barista, who was previously the master of the preparation of drinks, will gradually transform into the operator of a kava machine.
From which countries should we import kava to Ukraine?
Ukraine imports Arabica from Brazil and Colombia, and Robusta from Vietnam. I will remain in us to call vikoryists for the production of rosemary kava. Vadim Granovsky notes that earlier, Nicaragua also delivered kava to Ukraine, and through the fact that the country saw the annexation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, the trade of water with this Central American power bullets are added.
“Ukraine, like Japan, imports imported kava in the middle of the country, while Italy and Germany import green kava grain from Brazil, Ethiopia and Colombia, treat it, and then export under familiar brands. This is due to both the low purchasing power of the population and the traditions of the winemakers. why go to Ukraine, It is necessary to be cheap and accessible to the living, especially now, during the hour of war, when the purchasing power is low,” asserts an international expert on cavy.
Granovsky explains that over the past 10 years, the world's kava industry has faced serious climatic disturbances several times, such as drought and frost, which caused significant harm to kow plantations. Prices for kava were previously unstable, but after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, prices consolidated at a high level and did not decrease any further.
The main reason for this was logistical disruptions: the closure of ports and the delay in container transportation for many hours. Logistics also plays an important role in determining kava prices, and these factors have a significant impact on the market. Apart from traditional clicks, such as the weather minds, they have encountered other problems. For example, in Vietnam there is a shortage of labor force, which also complicates the situation in Galuzia.
Arabica pointed to the borderline
Arabica is the most popular variety of kava in the world. According to IndexMundi, in 2023 Brazil accounted for 85% of world Arabica. Ethiopia, which is famous for its father's kava, is also one of the leaders in the export of this variety. However, due to global warming and waste of water for crops, offending countries are faced with the problem of shrinking areas of Arabica plantations. Vadim Granovsky notes in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine that Arabica, as a biological culture, is at the forefront.
“Arabica is self-fertilizing, and this creates a problem, even though it has a very narrow genetic reserve. Roslina cannot adapt to high temperatures. Temperature increases of just a few degrees can lead to a critical change in fertility. Arabica It’s really cool: there are the necessary specific climate conditions, optimal fallfall, temperature and altitude at which one grows,” explains Granovsky.
According to Volcafe's forecasts, already in the next quarter of 2025, Arabica coffee reserves may decline to a critical level, which is estimated at less than five months of world consumption. This, of course, is a welcome change to Robusta – a cheaper, more stable variety of cava. This overdistribution of drink, in turn, drives up high prices for Robusta, as a result of which this variety will become more in demand as an alternative to Arabica.
Granovsky also notes that the genetic structure of robustia allows it to adapt more quickly to climate change, rather than being sacrificed to Arabs for its savory characteristics. Nowadays, vibrancy is often reduced to the development of monocultures, and for which vast areas of land have already been seen. Therefore, in order to develop any kind of monoculture, it is necessary to incorporate the new achievements of the agricultural kingdom, including mineral fertilizers, pesticides and genetically modified crops.
“At the end of the day The climate change industry is looking for alternatives. Zokrem, new territories for kavi cultivation are emerging, such as the Azores Islands near Volodymyr Portugal, where commercial plantations have already been created. Focus also has alternative views kavi, zokrema sternophila, which is less vibrant to the minds of the world, but the Arabs do not compromise for savory berries,” adds Vin.
Kava stenophylla (Coffea stenophylla) is a rare species of kava plant with high heat resistance, which grows naturally in Western Africa, growing in Cote d'Ivoire, Liberia and Sierra Leone. Stenophila has a unique genetic structure and is adaptable to climate change. Protea's low yield still separates its commercial popularity from Arabica and Robusta. At the same time, Vadim Granovsky sings that in the minds of global warming in stenophiles, there is the potential to gradually replace Arabica coffee in light markets.
Guess what, the doctor talked about the “dark side” of kavi and whoever uses it be careful.
During the preparation of the material, the comments of the international expert with cavy, the champion of Great Britain and the finalist of the World Championship with the preparation of drinking at the cezve, Vadim Granovsky, were used. Happy New Year Escobar Coffee Roasters Andria Titova and a representative of the Leader Coffee company, as well as data from the sites Bloomberg, The Daily Mirror, Investopedia, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA), research from IndexMundi and Volcafe.