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Inherits of Avdiivka. Why did the ZSU leave Lastochkino and what is the Russian Federation now targeting?

Russian armies did not hesitate to bury Avdiivka and will continue to advance with great forces. The occupiers are pressing into more villages and, as it became clear, the defense forces have withdrawn from the settlement of Lastochkina.

A report about this and about how the situation may develop when entering Avdiivka, – from the material of RBC-Ukraine .< /p>

During the preparation of the material, the following were used: data from the Ukrainian project DeepState, the American Institute of Warfare (ISW), stated by the commander of the operational-strategic grouping “Tavria” Oleksandr Tarnavsky and speaker Dmitry Likh Reviews, expert comments Oleksandra Kovalenka and Oleksandra Musienka.


Defense forces have left Lastochkino: what is known

After the Defense Forces of Ukraine left Avdiivka, they knew that the Russian offensive would slow down. But the enemy immediately attacked with great forces and the village of Lastochkine fell first, which is located several kilometers from Avdiivka. It borders the outskirts of the village, and the industrial zone of the coke plant.

Russian propaganda spoke about the burial of Lastochkino another 24 years ago, showing photos from the central part of the village. Within a few years, the Ukrainian project DeepState updated the map and marked it as paid back. However, the next day, the speaker of the operational-strategic grouping of the military “Tavria” Dmytro Likhovy found himself buried, adding that by the 25th of February the defense forces were no longer able to reach the outskirts.

“These are the ones that were in the early hours. Although the situation is dynamic, it may change,” he said and said that the Ukrainian forces went ahead to prepare a position under the pressure of the artillery and aviation.

Tim an hour BILD expert Julian Ropke has compared the footage from the front with the map of locality and made a conclusion that the Russian armies have advanced to Lastochkino. Earlier, a video appeared confirming that the village was occupied by occupiers and Russian tricolors were hung in it. The Ukrainian fighters themselves said this, according to DeepState.

According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), over the weekend the Russians came out of Avdiivka and began to clear Lastochkina. Today's Lkhoviya broadcast the telethon, confirming his exit from the village. And the commander of the Tavria group, Oleksandr Tarnavsky, described the situation in his area of ​​responsibility this way. The enemy is increasing the number of airstrikes and assaults, artillery shelling and kamikaze drone strikes. Lesha on the Mar'ansky for Doba Bulo 40 demanded Ukrainian defense, on the backfall – 6, PD Avdіvyoy – 25.

“on the Avdіyvskoye. settlements at the entrance to Avdiivka, in order to prevent the Russians from further settling down and incurring the greatest costs for them,” the general added.

What is known about the defense of Lastochkino and the reasons for the exit

Before the large-scale invasion, approximately 600 people lived in Lastochkino. Population distribution point at the rates of the Durna River (a tributary of the Vovcha River, the Dnieper basin) at the outskirts of the Donetsk Highlands at an altitude of 180-190 m above the river level.

Kerivnik Center for Military-Legal Investigations Oleksandr Musienko notes that the barriers for the Ukrainian grouping on the outskirts of Avdiivka were created immediately after the Russians reached the place.

“Vorog di” will appear and continue to operate on the flanks of on the side of Berdychiv and Pervomaisky, falling in the center, like at this point in the Lastochkino area. Our forces are trying to strengthen the defense, making maximum expenditures, and it was important to eliminate Lastochkino, because the village was destroyed by the fire of the Russian troops, and it was especially safe to hide there “, – Rozpov Vіn at the rosemary from RBC-Ukraine.

DeepState analysts write that it was important to stay in Lastochkina, since the military had to settle down during the fighting, leaving Avdiivka. For the entire hour, the enemy continued to squeeze with a great amount of lust and technology, continuing the tactics of “meat assaults.” On the other hand, there is a thought that the defense of Swallow Boulevard was insufficiently effective and, apparently, it would have been a waste of time for food.

The military-political observer of the “Information Against” group, Oleksandr Kovalenko, is not ready to assess the strength of the defense.

“I know that we have a big problem with the lack of ammunition in sufficient quantity. We don’t have does not appear. And even if there were no defense there, without a proportional distribution of ammunition, it would be impossible to attack the most fortified military bases. Moreover, on Lastochkina there is a direct road from Avdiivka, highway T0542, which can be said about those that the Russians are small directly this is the way to the village,” saying VIN.

As Musienko emphasizes, Lastochkin did not have any great heights, and there was no time to turn him into an impregnable fortress. In his words, the enemy has an advantage in heights, advancing from Avdiivka and trying to develop success further on the approach.

“It is clear that this advantage will be victorious. “, as the situation is, the decision to take was absolutely correct,” said the expert.

Beyond Avdiivka there are plains that will never be crossed again. The landscape is not at the mercy of the Defense Forces, it is not excluded that stinks can come from other populated areas. The Russians preserve the impulse and the ability to stick out. On the one hand, this is a cry for the Ukrainian armies, which will eventually cover additional borders. Otherwise, this is a cry for the occupiers, as long as they go further, they stretch the logistics lines more, which actually allows the ZSU to beat the logistics and overload the throat of forces, adding Musienko.

“Safety buffer”. What does Lastochkina have to do with what will happen on the Avdiivsky front

RBC-Ukraine experts hope that in the near future the Avdiivsky front can gradually stabilize. For this purpose, reliable lines of defense are needed, otherwise, the problem of strikes with ceramic-coated aircraft bombs should be solved.

“Our troops are already in school, and at the same time one of the priority tasks is the fight against KABs (rigged aircraft bombs – ed.) and the depletion of aviation. I hope our partners are supporting us with missiles,” said Musienko.

However, this does not guarantee that beyond Lastochkin there will be no exit of Ukrainian forces from other populated areas. Following the words of Oleksandr Kovalenko, the Russians are pushing to create a security buffer for their grouping in Avdiivtsi. Which will include such superfluous villages as Stepove, Berdychi, Severna, Tonenka, Orlivka and Semenivka.

“This is similar to the area of ​​Avdiivka for 3-5 kilometers, which allows not only to consolidate in place, but also to ensure the possibility of regrouping, redeployment of sub-units, as well as “renew the fear,” he explains.

The Russians began to attend the commemorations, looking up to the quiet ones that began under Bakhmut. After the fall of the Bakhmut fortress, the Ukrainian forces in 2023 were soon able to move on to counterattack operations. What prompted the enemy to withdraw from the snowy sector in the area of ​​​​Klishchivka and Andriivka.

“So that the battle of Avdiivka does not happen again, they are creating a security buffer. Of course, they need an operational pause , to renew the offensive potential. They are exploring all their capabilities and sticking their heads out where they can,” adding Kovalenko.

The defensive line collapsed on the approach. Stepovo and Severne offensive?

As stated by the speaker of the Tavria grouping, Dmytro Likhovy, a maneuver to exit Lastochkino is required in order to organize defense along Berdich-Orlivka-Tonenky. If you look at the map, it is unclear how the ZSU will be able to maintain the presence of Stepovy and Severny, as there are few things left to go. It is entirely possible that in the near future some damn new news may be found from the Avdiivsky front.

“This is logical, since Stepov has not been in the first month of the “gray zone”, there was a little one there, although the Russians have not yet been able to bury it. And in the Severnaya there is a direct road from Vodyane. method of burying the Northern, for It is important to formulate a buffer on their basis. Therefore, I do not exclude that the Northern and Stepov will also be wasted,” Kovalenko says, adding that the villages were in the rizik zone and did not enter the defense line, as they called the military.

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Possible exit from Stepovoy and the predicted scenario, like Musienko.

“The enemy of the minds wants to get Avdiivka, and now we have a lot of success – leaving not only the place, but potentially the Stepovoy. Here everything will show real combat actions, how much our forces will be able to get through,” he said comments from RBC-Ukraine.

In his words, the Ukrainian army switched to maneuverable defense, as the active movement spreads between fortified areas and cordons. Meta – reduce the strength of the enemy, reduce its offensive potential and block the penetration away. It is significant that behind Orlovka and Tonenkiy natural membranes begin at the sight of high mountains and a cascade of water. Obviously, the defense forces here are preparing to break through the Russian army.

There is now a threat to an attack on Pokrovsk if Russia takes a pause

Information from the General Staff and analytical reports confirm the battle. Last year, at least 25 attacks were defeated in the areas of Severny, Stepovy, Berdychi and Nevelsky. The occupiers unsuccessfully advanced on Stepov, when there was an “unacceptable moment” with a breakthrough to Berdychi, before they could be defeated. According to DeepState data, the Russians are trying to gain a foothold in the outermost buildings in Orlivtsya, around Tonenky and have achieved frequent successes on the day before Severny.

In theory, the gap can provide sympathetic minds for the attack along the Selidovoy, Novogrodivka and Pokrovsk rivers. It is entering the administrative cordons of the Donetsk region, which threatens to reduce the Kurakhov and Vugledar districts to the so-called “sack”. Prote expert Musienko appreciates that on Mar'insky the situation has stabilized and the worst-case scenario is still going away.

“We'll see how the situation develops, and then ours and or finish streaming the enemy. “In the Donetsk region, it is clear that Russian plans include advancing to both Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, including from Limansky directly, and they will conduct offensive actions from the fall of leaves. Therefore, all the regions are being strengthened by our forces,” he added. in.< /p>

Olexandr Kovalenko appreciates that after the burying of Lastochkin and potentially Stepov and Northern Russia, the people of the North will begin to grow. on Berdychi, Semenivka and Orlivka. The command wants to secure a buffer, they have been left behind by the battles for Avdiivka, limited in resources, and they lack the potential for deep penetration (Bik Pokrovska – ed.),” he concluded. n.

Read terms and important information about the war between Russia and Ukraine on the RBC-Ukraine channel on Telegram.

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