• 23/07/2024 14:28

Putin “vigrav”. What is happening to the Russian Federation after the elections and what is Ukraine preparing for?

Dictator Volodymyr Putin wins the so-called elections in Russia, continuing his run for the last time and the powers aggressor at least until 2030. Nowadays, the press is talking about the significance of Putin’s fifth term for the world’s policy.

About the results of “Putin’s elections”, the reaction of the world, scenarios for how further policies will develop, and about those up to What is our country preparing for, – from the materials of RBC-Ukraine.

During the preparation of the material, the following were taken into account: tributes to the Russian Central Election Committee, which declared the Russian Federation to protect the rights of the “Voice” voters, Volodymyr Putin, blackouts Politico, Financial Times , Spiegel, The New York Times, expert comments by Oleksandr Kovalenko and Oleksandr Musienka.

Zmist

  • A reminder for Putin, record numbers in the “elections”
  • How will the world react to the elections, those who have already voted for Putin
  • Scenarios for Mayday. What's in store for Russia in Putin's fifth term
  • Putin's threats, what will be the mobilization in the Russian Federation and what Ukraine is preparing for

Putin's message: record numbers in the “elections”

In the first elections in 2018, Putin won the vote with a result of 76.69%. Yesterday's exit polls prophesied another victory, and data from the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation confirm this. As of early 18th February, after processing 99.75% of the protocols, the following numbers were announced:

  • Volodymyr Putin – 87.29%
  • Mikola Kharitonov (Communist Party of the Russian Federation) – 4.30%
  • Vladislav Davankov (“New People”) – 3.84%
  • Leonid Slutsky (LDPR) – 3.21%

The remaining sums amount to 21 days, but it is already obvious that Putin’s competitors total less than 12%. Davankov, who was called a candidate with an anti-war agenda, moved in several foreign villages, for example, in Prazia (59.89%), Warsaw (51.01%), Haazi (56.88%), Vilnius (39.22%), Haifa (40.82%) and Yerevan (49.85%). In most other foreign countries, Russians voted for Putin.

In addition, the Central Election Commission announced a record turnout, as with the regulation of remote electronic voting in a third of the regions it was 77.44%. The show is close to the one, as the opposition ZMI wrote, fled to the Kremlin.

Despite the perceived high level of support for Putin, election organizers were afraid to openly and honestly conduct voting and election procedures. Everything possible has been crushed in order to curb caution, to urge Russia to protect the rights of the “Voice” election voters. The statement also suggests that the government, having engaged in propaganda, will gain control over the elections. The last day, the 17th of February, became its apotheosis, when in certain regions the security forces controlled the will of the people, punished for “wrong” entries in the ballot, or attempted to open the voting chamber. Nothing like this on such a scale has ever happened before in Russian elections.

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Photo: Volodymyr Putin gets over 87% of votes (Getty Images)

There was no need to worry about it. According to the data of “OVD-Info”, for the 17th year, 86 individuals were covered in selected hospitals. In more than 20 regions, it was recorded that there was no place for voting or mass distribution of ballots for additional ink and greenery. 22 people were caught for putting ballots in ballot boxes, 10 were caught for trying to cast ballots, and two more people threw a firecracker and a Dimov's saber at the farms.

The low rate of return means that behind the “support” figures, Putin has overthrown his Belarusian colleague Alexander Lukashenko (over 80.1% in 2020) and is approaching the dictatorships of the Central Asian regions. Kerivnik Center for Military-Legal Research Oleksandr Musienko argues that the current form of government in the Russian Federation is more suitable for significant despotism and represents an absolutist type of power, close to Asian usurpation ї.

“Is there a record boost for you? Everything is quite simple: you need to show that the Russians absolutely and irrevocably support Putin’s course and that there is nothing to do with the seizure of the so-called “special military operation” in Ukraine. Demonstrate that “the fatherland has united.” It's true that it's about innocence. Inflatable ratings, Putin’s joy at the results is an attempt to show the fruits of action, to show that the marriage is praised, that the country is never collapsing in the right direction,” he explained.

How to react to the election in the world who have already welcomed Putin

Even before the announcement of the official results, the Kremlin began to withdraw from the leaders of the countries of Latin America, Asia and the Western world. Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro called Putin's victory “mindless”, Bolivian President Luis Arce – “miserable”, Nicaraguan leader Daniel Ortega declared a “triumph”, and Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel expressed hope for a change in ties from the Russian Federation.

Korean leader Kim Jong-in sent a telegram to the global telegram. Myanmar Prime Minister Min Aung Hlaing spoke about supporting Russia's political course, and the head of the People's Republic of China, Xi Jinping, emphasized that the Russian Federation, behind Putin, “can achieve even greater success in development.” Iranian President Ibrahim Raisi spoke of the need to expand the transport networks of Moscow and Tehran.

The leaders of the post-Russian region Putin were greeted by Shavkat Mirziyev (Uzbekistan), Emomali Rahmon (Tajikistan), Ilham Aliyev (Azerbaijan), Kasim-Jomart Tokayev (Kazakhstan), Sadir Japarov (Kyrgyzstan) and the Belarusian dictator Ol Alexander Lukashenko. Russian serpents write with messages to the head of the council of Old Believers, Leonid Sevostyanov, who conveyed to the Kremlin a message from the ancients from Pope Francis. The Vatican's press service did not publish an official statement about this drive.

Photo: Putin clearly rejects the favor of satellites and partners from the Global Day, while still stating that he does not know the elections in the occupied territories (Getty Images)

UN Secretary-General António Guterres condemned the elections in the occupied territories of Ukraine. According to the statement of the permanent representation of Ukraine at the UN, more than 50 countries were condemned to vote in the occupation. Among them are the EU member states, Britain, the USA and Canada, Chile, Argentina, Costa Rica, Israel, Liberia, South Korea, Japan and Uruguay. Following the words of the head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, the European Union will make an affirmative statement.

It is significant that on Friday the head of the European Union, Charles Michel, sarcastically “greeted” Putin.

” I would like to welcome Volodymyr Putin to the conflicting elections that begin today. The opposition to the people. The freedom to freedom. The choice to the people,” he wrote on Twitter.

British Defense Minister Grant Shapps said that Putin has stolen another election, but he won’t steal Ukraine. And in order to stop “the evil of the dictator,” London and the allies are working to strengthen the collective support of Ukraine. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the election in Russia a sham. In his words, Putin is simply ill in power, doing everything to rule forever, and “there is no such evil that he cannot commit in order to continue his special power.”

“This activity can end here “The lava of the defendants at Gaazi – to ensure their very guilt. Everyone in the world, who values ​​​​life and orderliness,” – indicating the vin.

As of the evening of the 18th, the world’s civilizations are still ignoring “Putin’s election.” Let’s go to the leaders of Serbia and Ugorshchina Oleksandr Vučić and Viktor Orban, although they were the only heads of European countries to whom the Russian dictator overpowered the new telegrams.

Military-political review of the Inform group “Action against” Oleksandr Kovalenko appreciates that he declared There are no rich leaders because the illegitimate president of Russia held illegitimate elections.

“Why? Because the Russian Federation does not exist in these boundaries, which they paint on their maps. Putin is illegitimate not because people voted for him in the occupied territories of Ukraine. But from the very day when the first leten s with a tick on the contrary, his name was thrown into the ballot box in Crimea in 2018,” indicating the wine from the past.

Scenarios for Maybut. What's in store for Russia in Putin's fifth term

The 2024 elections have become an even bigger fiction, but first of all, the remains of Putin’s real rivals are driven out, under threat or dead, writes the Financial Times. According to the editorial article, “Putin’s fifth term is to become a threat to Europe and the world,” and the only factor that will cause him to continue for the sixth time is the defeat of the Russian-Ukrainian war.

The Economist pays tribute to the accumulation of power in Russia. Single episodes of protest cannot influence the result, but rather influence Putin’s legitimacy in the eyes of rich Russians and local officials. This does not include that incidents with greenery and Molotov cocktails at the factories could become a trigger for new repressions.

The German magazine Spiegel notes that Putin may feel politically inflamed after the elections. It is significant that at this evening’s press conference he cynically commented on the death of oppositionist Oleksiy Navalny, having first called him by his nickname for many years.

“We have left life, but it has always been difficult. We have had other episodes when people in places of lesser freedom have left life. Hasn’t this happened in the United States? It has happened more than once,” Putin said, adding that no bito buv It’s good to blame Navalny for the people who are experiencing a lack of freedom in the city at Sunset.

Photo: Putin after the “elections” repression may flare up in full force (Getty Images)

Spiegel says that Putin could not celebrate the holiday more demonstratively, but it is possible that after the elections the repressive machine will be launched into full force. Oleksandr Kovalenko, in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine, noted that repressions in Russia will no longer persist. But Musіnko does not know his worm, Kudi Shcherystkiesh, to the look at those, sofasii I so rodgrolen.

“Xіba Shcho to vyrech to turn the death of the Kara і Vlastovuvatima,” The Farrons “I so far out, – having designated VIN.

Another part of authoritarian elections is bribing the loyalty of voters. For example, it is clear that for Hosni Mubarak in Egypt during the election period, budget expenditures and incomes of the population increased. As it turned out, this is a typical model of behavior for Putin, who has entrusted him with increasing the salaries of doctors and public health workers. As a rule, after elections, the Russian government becomes more stingy with goods. The nutrition is to blame, as the goiter has already been taken. Regardless of everything, the Kremlin is planning to get cash for the transfer of taxes. ZMI write that Russians with an income of over 1 million rubles per river (close to 11,000 dollars) will have to pay for everything.

I'm sorry, after the elections, reshuffles are expected for Russian officials. It is clear that it is not possible to take advantage of the appearance of a large number of new personalities, while over the course of the remaining years, Putin has given precedence not to the “dark horses”, but to well-known managers. However, we have learned that we intend to more actively recruit participants in the war against Ukraine.

“I had a simple thought in my mind that I’m trying to organize now. With the help of these guys, so as not to harm themselves, they fight in the interests of Fatherlandism, incur expenses, waste money, and need to shape the future management corps,” he said in in.

The formation of a new elite from “veterans” can indicate that Russia, in the long term, intends to live without war. Although there has long been nothing more important there, Musienko respects.

“Putin is simply showing that if Russians want to earn a career with the authorities, join the government service, the FSB, and so on, they need to pass the “SVO.” Plus, by engaging with the mobilized, it’s an attempt to show that no one remembers about them, fragments of the mood in the army are slaughtered. And demoralized, and those who do not understand why they should continue the war. Therefore, it is necessary to raise morale with propaganda,” he added.

Days Politico published five scenarios – at least to the greatest extent possible – so much so that you can count on Russia on Putin’s fifth term:

  • “Kviti Democracy”. Dissatisfaction with the ongoing war against Ukraine and the deterioration of the economic situation could provoke a change of power in the wake of the “oxamite revolutions” in Converging Europe in 1989. The foreignness is estimated at 5-10%.
  • Collapse of Russia. The beginning is the same, and instead of democratic transformations, national conflicts begin. The Russian Federation is plagued by chaos, a huge war and local conflicts with the onset of disintegration. Virality – 10-15%.
  • Rise of the nationalists. The right radical forces, disillusioned by the failure in Ukraine, can gain strength from those who did not give in to the “Wagnerites” in the last 2023 or to the operatives of the State Emergency Committee in the early 1991. Apparently a small group of rebels can carry out a revolution and seize power, confidence is estimated at 15-20%.
  • Technocratic re-invasion. Putin’s extremity can be controlled from the other side, as was the case with Mikita Khrushchev in 1964. As a result, the ruling regime will lose itself, or replace the president with another figure. It is certain that the attackers will follow the actions of Zahod, placing the blame for the war squarely on Putin. Virality – 20-25%.
  • “Long live President Putin.” It seems that the 71-year-old dictator does not have such health problems that could lead to rapid death. Therefore, having left the opposition and potential rebels from the right-wing camp, there is a high chance of ruling at least until 2030. Immovability – 45-50%.

Olexander Kovalenko does not agree with the concept of the disintegration of the Russian Federation.

“What can happen is “feudalization”. What am I hoping for? Those that Russia will transform itself into such feudal affairs, which will destroy the local oligarchic structures on the level of the federal districts and so on. It’s important that Putin can be presidential term to the end, so for him everything can be in a negative scenario. Otherwise, there will be no disintegration, Russia will be destroyed. This is the most probable scenario,” he said.

Putin's threats, if there will be mobilization in the Russian Federation what are you getting ready for? Ukraine

Putin is victorious in his fifth term, ready to continue the war against Ukraine, writes The New York Times. As it turns out, the campaign itself was organized by the war: they decided to run for the victory of one of the leaders of the so-called DPR, and the symbol of the elections became the white-blue-red letter V, which is in order from Z to be victorious for greater support Russian aggression.

< p>The end of the war will deprive it of an organizing principle for the Kremlin. The whole nation declared in earnest that Russia was unable to achieve military goals by simultaneously investing in the economy, infrastructure and long-term projects. Having previously said that the Russians are “concerned about creating the future for the last time in their hands,” then the main priority will be “conquering the task within the framework of the military operation” and changing the army.

Photo: immediately after the elections, Putin began to threaten a third world war and an attack on Kharkiv (Getty Images)< /em>

Speaking about the possibility of cooperation with NATO, he said that “everything is possible in this world.” In the event of a full-scale conflict between Russia and NATO, in other words, the world will be over within a short time of the third world war, but “there will hardly be any problems.”

In favor of Ukraine, Putin repeated that he is in favor of peaceful negotiations “not without the enemy running out of ammunition.” I would like to point out in an interview with propagandist Dmitry Kiselov that it is ridiculous to start negotiations because Ukraine faces problems due to the withdrawal of incoming military aid. Yesterday I added that I can still think about who to talk to about peace.

Prote “peaceful rhetoric” does not allow me to threaten an attack on Kharkov. Real on Reidi RDK, Legony “Freedom of the Rosії” of the Sibiri Batalia “Ta Vidpovychi on the Pannnya about the Sulfinnnik Harkіvsko, the” Features of the Bezpeku “Bєlgorodsko, Win, talking about the stir of Sanitary Zona. Here it is important to note that this is not a foreign terminology, and, above all, we are talking about a demilitarized zone in order to launch attacks on objects on the territory of the Russian Federation.

“After the election of Moscow, nothing will change conceptually. Putin spoke to the press and repeated what he said earlier. It is much clearer to talk about the “sanitary zones”, below explain how it happened, Yisk software cannot cope with threats and will continue to do so hour of the flood at 13 oil refineries. The global task is no longer unchanged – the decline of Ukrainian sovereignty. In this and the other world, in my opinion, it is possible to control the “sanitary zone”, that’s why “I guessed it,” said Oleksandr Musienko.

Russia will not be able to implement such plans, Kovalenko respects.

“At this stage, no. They can only carry out terrorist attacks, and not completely bury large territories. They will not be able to reach Kharkov. zasobiv, inform after mobilization,” the expert said.

As long as there is a lack of mobilization, as CNN writes, the enormous costs of burying Avdiivka and other settlements, more than anything else, could force the Kremlin to launch a large-scale campaign. In the Ukrainian military intelligence, it seems that mobilization in Russia has not been taken up and continues to worry unceasingly.

“And so, after this farce, they called it “Putin’s elections,” (it turns out, – ed.) Their activation. stinks (mobile entries, ed.) can be of a more critical nature, and that’s true,” said GUR representative Andriy Yusov on air at the telethon.

As Kovalenko believes, mobilization in Russia will be carried out in a comprehensive manner. According to his estimates, the occupation army can recruit at least up to 0.5 million people. Musienko says that it is still important to say how great the mobilization will be.

“To replenish expenses, they can carry out an exchange. In order to call for 20-30 thousand per month for immediate deployment to the front. Otherwise, it may be necessary Isya and for more. They voiced 300 thousand in two months, I don’t believe it. Dial, learn and save for such a term, you won’t get a stink,” – learned from the Russian Federation.

Mobilization has been accelerated before the summer the attack may turn around because the “Budyonivska Guard” is advancing in support of drones and aircraft. This is a possible scenario with the aim of trying to break through the front, the docks, Ukraine did not withdraw any more intense support towards the Sunset.

“Another scenario is a proper large-scale mobilization under the campaign for the autumn-winter. This time I can say that I “We will do our best and we will be worse off, no matter what. I think the Russians themselves should take care,” the expert added.

Read terms and important information about the war between Russia and Ukraine on the RBC-Ukraine channel in Telegram.

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