• 12/07/2024 23:27

Russian maximum. How much can Putin increase the army even at the “pain threshold”

The Russian Federation has increased its occupational grouping in Ukraine to the extent of one million osib. And it can increase even more, as intelligence predicts a new mobilization after tough elections.

Report on the number of occupiers, the number of Russian troops and those How many more Russians can be mobilized by Volodymyr Putin, – from the material of RBC-Ukraine.< /p>

During the preparation of the material, the following were taken into account: data from The Military Balance 2023 bulletin, Global Firepower rating, statements by Russian President Volodymyr Putin, representatives of Ukrainian intelligence, comments from experts Oleksiy Hetman and Oleksandr Kovalenko.

Location:

  • How many Russians are already in Ukraine. And what are the signs of a strategic offensive
  • What is the size of the Russian army and its fighting strength
  • When there is a new crisis and how many Russians can Putin mobilize

How many Russians are already in Ukraine. And the building stinks for a strategic offensive

At the press conference in the chest, Volodymyr Putin gave a low number of figures that indicate the strength and composition of the Russian grouping in Ukraine.

“The length of the line is about two thousands of kilometers, near the zone There are 617 thousand individuals undergoing combat operations,” indicating the war.

On this date, 244 thousand were mobilized in the hour of the first crisis, which began in the spring of 2022.

“We have undergone a partial mobilization, and we have called up 300 thousand people… Now, in my opinion, 244 thousand (mobilized, – ed.) are located right in the zone of combat operations,” Putin added.

The Ukrainian side respects such figures with confidence. Also, a representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence, Andriy Yusov, called the number of the Russian army on our territory at 450 thousand individuals.

At the beginning of 2024, another representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Vadim Skibitsky, has updated the data. In other words, the grouping of military ground forces in Ukraine consists of 462 thousand individuals. In addition, there are also 35 thousand military service members of the Russian Guard who will ensure the occupation regime on the buried lands. And without regulating the activities in aviation and in the navy. He also said that the staffing level of Russian military units is maintained at 92-95%.

The occupation army in Ukraine consists of several military groups:

  • “Center” and “Zakhid” – activity on the Liman-Kupyansk axis
  • “Pivden” from the zone of similarity in the Donetsk region
  • “Skhid” (two wings “Skhid” and “Zaporizhzhya”) – action on the administrative cordon of Donetsk/Zaporizhzhya regions and on daily basis
  • “Dnipro” – left bank part of the Kherson region

It’s difficult to name the exact numbers on the skin, fragments of Russians regularly move along the front line. According to the words of the expert, reserve major of the ZSU Oleksiy Hetman, a 130-thousand-strong grouping is directly focused on Liman-Kupyansky. On Bakhmutsky – close to 80 thousand.

“Here the stinks are trying to break through to Kostyantynivka, wanting to take Chasiv Yar for a start. One might say, they are grouped more tightly. By now it has doubled in size, since the previously estimated number was up to 40 thousand,” – having noted in the commentary of RBC-Ukraine.

Photo: Russian grouping in Ukraine has over 460 thousand people (Getty Images)

There are another 40 thousand on the Avdiivsky direct, and there are more than 100 thousand on the advanced flank of the similar front on the intellectual Vugledar direct. Others – evenly along the rain front with a concentration of up to 10 thousand near the Krynok and Kozachih Camps on the left bank of the Kherson region. The “Defense of Crimea” group is also small, with 10-12 thousand individuals, which may not have a full standard set of equipment and is required, including for control of the pivostrov.

Significantly, in 2022, the number of captured Russian troops before the invasion was estimated at 180-190 thousand individuals. Today there are 2.5 times more occupiers in Ukraine. What is logical about the transition of the war to the positional phase and the area of ​​the buried territories.

Tell about how many residents of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhka regions and Crimea are fighting for Russia, foldable. The military-political observer of the “Information Against” group, Oleksandr Kovalenko, appreciates that in any case, 90% of the enemy’s army consists of Russians.

The number of approximately 460 thousand allows us to conquer territories and conduct tactical operations. A strategic offensive is impossible in any situation.

“We need to match the tactical offensive

How is the number of the Russian army and its fighting strength

At the beginning of 2023, the number of armed forces in Russia was 1.15 million military servicemen. Then Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu proposed to increase it to 1.5 million people, including the number of contract servicemen – up to 695 thousand. In addition, he advocated for raising the border limit for recruitment to military service up to 30 years.

Moreover, Shoigu called his initiative a response to “NATO’s efforts to increase military potential near Russian cordons and expand the alliance for the countries of Finland and Sweden.” Significantly, in 2023 Finland joined NATO. It looks like Sweden will have to accept this fate. In parallel, Russia created two new interspecies strategic territorial formations – the Moscow and Leningrad military districts.

In 2023, Putin will still increase the number of the army ї up to 2.2 million, of which 1.33 million – military services. And in the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation they decided not to bother with priming.

“Increase

Olexiy Getman considers the argument ridiculous that there is a threat from the side of NATO.< /p>

“When people start saying that NATO is threatening them, I think the rich people in the middle of Russia are smiling. NATO never intended to threaten them. So what? Is NATO territory in Russia? the need to justify an increase in the number of military personnel from the Russian-Ukrainian wars. They can’t tell the population that the aliens overpowered our army with such strength, that they need new “harmonious meat.” It’s primitive, but if such propaganda comes in, then they will last “, – the expert added. < /p>

According to the bulletin The Military Balance, the total number of Russian military personnel is estimated at 1.2 million:

  • land forces – 550 thousand
  • military-naval fleet – 145 thousand
  • air forces – 165 thousand
  • missile forces – 50 thousand
  • Airborne troops – 40 thousand
  • Zaliznichny troops – 29 thousand
  • 1st and 2nd army corps (so called “LPR/DPR”) – 30 thousand
  • command and support – 180 thousand

Crimea, internal military and other military formations will be around 560 thousand, another 1.5 million are in the reserves of all branches. k.< /p>

Russia maintains a large army and a large nuclear arsenal. The invasion of Ukraine revealed few shortcomings in terms of preparation, planning, personnel and capacity to resist a strong enemy. Zokrema and the ground forces have recognized the enormous costs of tanks, armored vehicles and special warehouses. Independent assessments are rising, and other activities have become unprofitable. Serious losses were also recognized by the military-naval fleet and military forces, according to the bulletin.

At the same time, Russia is deprived of “another army” in the world, according to the Global Firepower index. Він

“I love the tsi ratings, the stench phenomenal. On the right in the one, if Koli is the shock of the shifts at Vіinhi, if the rosbite is wake up, all the same to flood the” other Army “at the Tsich ratings. “It is clear from the possibility of strikes. And while Russia faces a nuclear threat more than China, it will be different in the future,” says Oleksandr Kovalenko.

The reality is completely different.

“Of course, in two years there has been a significant increase in militarization, but at the same time the degradation of the capabilities of the technical and technological order is much greater. Most of the time, the army of the top 10 is without a nuclear component,” he explained. ov from RBC-Ukraine.< /p> If there is a new crisis and how many Russians can be mobilized by Putin

After the completion of the “partial mobilization” in 2023, the Russian authorities launched a campaign to establish contracts. Standing in the middle of the chest, according to Putin, 486 thousand people were recruited in this manner, and by the end of 2023 the figure will increase to 500 thousand. In fact, no new mobilization is planned, just for now.

“What is the future of mobility for us? There is no need for it today,” said Vin.

As a representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Vadim Skibitsky Today, contracts are signed by up to 1000-1100 people, or approximately 30 thousand per month. And this amount of money will be spent on additional expenses. In order to create a strong strategic reserve, the enemy needs special mobilization.

“Why is Putin going to work? It’s unlikely before the elections. And then we’ll be amazed. It’s too early to talk about it. But all the plans for carrying out mobilization at any time have been created in Russia,” pointing to the beginning of today.

RBC-Ukraine experts are in good spirits, or else they are going to go crazy at certain points. For example, when it is possible to mobilize up to 30 thousand Russians per month, this does not compensate for the expenditure in full.

“According to the statistics taken behind the scenes, for every one killed there are at least two wounded. That’s still close to 60 thousand and “three hundred.” The result is that here under 100 thousand per month the stink is spent killed and wounded. Still, the balance is negative. Another month b-two the stench is washed away at such a pace, but there is no need to strengthen mobilization. There is no other way out to maintain the necessary amount of living force,” explains Oleksiy Hetman.

Until the end of mobilization, it will not be possible to vote for the high support of Putin, but the decision is unpopular, and there is no risk before the elections. KRIM TO, TOT SHOULD SLEED, OKILKY SUNNOO ROSIANI to throw the mustache, Scho Khochkhosuhav, Idikhav on the front shows, Yak “See їnya” Special Opeksia “, by attaching the sexpert.

According to Oleksandr Kovalenko, the upcoming campaign to recruit Russians into the army will be called a permanent one, just not a mobilization campaign.

“We are in great need of human resources. Therefore, in the onset, which stinks in the 2023 generation, there is a great volume of expenses that need to be compensated. What can not be done and the mobility potential at the level of 25 -30 thousand per month, then the stench cannot be avoided those who compensate for “two hundred” and “three hundred”, they will not be able to renew rotational units,” he added.

According to expert estimates, the pace of mobilization in Russia may be raise to 40-50 thousand per month.

“There are close to 500 thousand behind the rock bags. But they don’t carry it out like in the spring of 2022. Then they mobilized 100 thousand for a month, and the system may have collapsed. It seems to me that in Russia vikorystvatimut light option for limits of 50 thousand per month, so as not to overdo it system. It is better to satisfy the needs of the mobile resource,” said Kovalenko.

When it is not good to assume that the enemy is in pain, then the number of dead or sent to war is critical, yak to motivate the cross-border communities of the Russian Federation to go out on protests, to topple the Putin regime or face war.

“The key here is how much resources they have to mobilize tens of thousands of take care of them for a month “Our war is not being waged in a new format, unless they calm down. The war is coming to a head, and we need everything to make it more important for them to encourage aggression against us, including protecting their troops. There is no pain threshold. є,” the expert concluded.

Read terms and important information about the war between Russia and Ukraine on the RBC-Ukraine channel on Telegram.

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