As expected, after the start of the cold season, after the start of the heating season in Ukraine, the Russian occupiers began to more actively attack peaceful Ukrainian cities and villages. A week ago, Kyiv experienced a powerful air attack, the most powerful in many months. But this attack differed from those that Ukraine experienced last winter with one important nuance.
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This attack was without the use of missiles, exclusively by attack drones. But there were a lot of them – within just a few hours, units of the Ukrainian Defense Forces destroyed about 75 Russian drones.
It should be noted that the Russian military command actually decided to change the tactics of air attacks on peaceful Ukrainian territory. So the winter of 2023/2024 will most likely be remembered not as a time of massive missile attacks on Ukraine, but as a war of drones.
Why did the occupiers decide to change the means of air strikes so radically? One drone costs 30-40 thousand dollars, which is many times cheaper than a cruise missile.
Let's look at the statistics on the use of UAVs for September – 503. If we talk about the activity of UAVs of the Russian occupation army, then for September it is one and a half times higher than previous figures. This indicates that the Russian Federation will shift its main focus from cruise missiles costing several million dollars directly to the massive use of UAVs.
It should be noted that these 500 drones cost the aggressor country $15 million. This amount is the cost of only two cruise missiles, so the economic component is still important for the Russian Federation – at least in terms of difficulties with the production of cruise missiles.
And the number of drones, the total cost of which corresponds to the price of one missile, could theoretically cause much more harm to Ukraine.
In addition, the Russians did not sit idle these six months, but improved their UAVs. The occupiers began to use composite materials for reflective surfaces. They cover «Shaheed» carbon, which is an absorbing material for radar signals.
In addition, the Russians are painting UAVs black to make it harder for Ukrainian air defenses to shoot them down. This could complicate the work of air defense, namely the visual reference to the target of mobile fire groups.
Another important point is what exactly the Russian military will try to hit or even destroy with massive drone attacks in the winter. The most obvious option, as a year ago, is the energy infrastructure of Ukraine in order to plunge the rear regions of the warring country into cold and darkness.
The recent massive drone attack has already resulted in certain losses in the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. In the Vinnytsia region, debris from a Russian drone damaged a high-voltage power line.
It is this part of the energy infrastructure that will be under the greatest threat in the next 3-4 months. The reason here is simple. After last winter, generating and transforming facilities – thermal power plants or substations received additional protection in the form of modern Western air defense systems. Penetrating these systems, as the spring and summer missile attacks showed, is very difficult. And in the capital region, where the American Patriot system protects the sky from Russian missiles, this is virtually impossible, because, as you know, this technology destroyed even hypersonic “Daggers,” which, according to the Russians themselves, “didn’t exist.” analogues in the world» and «none» the weapon could not shoot them down».
That is why the occupiers are focusing their attention on the network of high-voltage power lines. Because this is the easiest way to break the logistics chain for the distribution of electricity throughout Ukraine.
And here another key question arises – has the Ukrainian army prepared for such a development of events? Does it have a plan in place to counter new Russian tactics?
The answer to this question is yes. Because two events happened the other day that put you in a positive mood.
Firstly, on the left bank, occupied part of the Kherson region, a precise strike destroyed the location of the Russian drone operator. And secondly, on the territory of Russia itself, in Bryansk, Ukrainian drones dealt a more than sensitive blow to an even more important facility – a warehouse where the so-called Geranium-2 drones were stored, that is, the world famous Iranian « #171;Shaheds», which are used by the aggressor country.
This move of the Ukrainian army is strategically very important. Instead of fighting each drone, so to speak, individually, the Ukrainian Defense Forces decided to destroy them in batches, moreover, on the distant approaches to the front. The drones from Bryansk still needed to be transported to the east or south of Ukraine; this required time and appropriate transport resources. But the Ukrainian Armed Forces simplified this supply chain by destroying the drones in the warehouse.
This strike is a clear signal to the occupiers. The Ukrainian Armed Forces, firstly, has information about the locations of the main Russian weapons prepared for this winter. Secondly, the Ukrainian army is quite capable of successfully striking targets on the territory of the Russian Federation.
So we can say that the winter drone war has already begun. And it began immediately on enemy territory. Which in itself is a serious success for the Ukrainian Armed Forces. And the Russians again demonstrated their helplessness in the face of Ukrainian drones, which the local propaganda media and government officials prefer not to notice. But the losses that they inflict on the invaders hundreds of kilometers from the front, the Russians cannot help but notice.