Ukrainian soldier (photo: Getty Images) Author: Ulyana Bezpalko, Yulia Akimova
Fighting is currently ongoing in the Kursk region and Ukrainian troops have most likely had to retreat. Why this happened, what preceded it, why Putin came to the Kursk region and what this could mean for future negotiations – in the material of RBC-Ukraine.
The situation in the Kursk region is dynamic and changes literally every few hours. Over the past week, Russian military personnel have regained control over about 200 square kilometers of the region's territory. While Vladimir Putin, in camouflage, has arrived to lead the “Kursk counteroffensive” and the Russian Defense Ministry is showing footage of Sudzha, destroyed after its “liberation,” Ukrainian military personnel are trying to consolidate their positions on new frontiers.
Operation Pipe
Ukrainian troops entered the Kursk region in August 2024. For everyone without exception, this operation was a complete surprise and called into question the “inviolability” of Russian borders, which the Kremlin propaganda loves to talk about. The Ukrainian Armed Forces quickly consolidated their positions in the Kursk region, and later even began to bring journalists there.
One of the most frequently visited places was the city of Sudzha. Despite the fact that military actions took place in the city and it was essentially taken by Ukrainian troops, this did not particularly affect its appearance. The residents who remained there in comments to journalists constantly thanked the Ukrainian military for bringing them food and water. Many criticized the Russian authorities and the military, accusing them of indifference towards the residents.
A Ukrainian soldier talks to residents of Sudzha (photo: RBC-Ukraine)
In fact, that's how it looked. Despite the fact that the Ukrainian Armed Forces had consolidated their positions in several Russian settlements, the Russian leadership commented on the situation very superficially, and after some time, it went quiet. It seemed that they had decided to literally sacrifice the Kursk region in order not to allocate reserves to it, not to transfer military groups from other directions, and to continue occupying Ukrainian territories.
In early March, Russian so-called war correspondents first recalled Operation Potok, or as it was later called, Truba. According to the plans of the Russian command, the military was supposed to travel 12 to 15 km along the Urengoy-Pomary-Uzhgorod pipeline, which is not in operation. According to various sources, Russian soldiers crawled along the pipe for a week in conditions of toxic gas fumes, a critical shortage of oxygen cylinders and provisions.
The Ukrainian command later commented on the results of the operation, stating that the Russians had failed to either take the Ukrainian Armed Forces by surprise or gain a foothold in their rear. The Ukrainian Armed Forces had received information about the Russian Federation's “underground infantry” and had set up an ambush for them at the exit from the pipe. However, despite the failed idea, the situation in the Kursk region began to rapidly deteriorate. The Russians had deployed reserves and, according to various sources, had redeployed some of their forces from the East of Ukraine.
Fights in Kursk region – replay of events
During a new attempt at a counteroffensive in the Kursk region, the enemy decided to focus on reducing the width of the Ukrainian bridgehead while simultaneously complicating our logistics. And in the end, his calculation worked.
The situation in the Kursk region began to deteriorate noticeably about a month ago. Then the Russians captured the area from Darino to Sverdlikovo, located in the Ukrainian-Russian borderland. One of the logistics roads of our bridgehead in the Kursk region passed through Sverdlikovo. And the loss of control over this road put the entire part of this bridgehead north of Sudzha at risk.
Secondly, the enemy’s advance to the border between the Kursk and Sumy regions allowed him to establish fire control over another key road – Sudzha – Yunakovka, along which our units were also supplied.
After Sverdlikovo, the Russians advanced to Novenkoye, which is already on the territory of Sumy region. From there, they are trying to break through to Basovka, and then to the Yunakovka-Sudzha checkpoint, in order to get to the rear of our troops and thereby force them to completely leave Kursk region. However, the enemy was unable to get past Novenkoye.
Last week, events became more active. The Russians were able to break through to the border on the right flank of our bridgehead – in the Kurilovka area, which is south of Sudzha. After that, the very same Operation Potok took place. At the same time, the enemy troops continued to press along the perimeter of the bridgehead. In particular – from Mirny and Makhnovka in the direction of Sudzha.
The overall situation is complicated by the wooded terrain, where enemy soldiers dig in even in the roots of trees, and the enemy's massive use of fiber-optic drones, which cannot be suppressed by electronic warfare.
“As a result, due to the near impossibility of conducting logistics and in order to preserve personnel, a decision was made to reduce the depth of our penetration and conduct a controlled withdrawal of troops,” explained one of RBC-Ukraine's informed sources.
Sudzha in August (photo: Getty Images)
Ukrainian officials commented and comment on the events in Kursk region very cautiously. On the afternoon of March 12, President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on the situation. He did not give details, limiting himself to saying that the situation was indeed difficult, and that Ukraine's priority was to save the lives of its military. In the evening, Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky reported that active military actions were underway in the suburbs and districts of Sudzha.
“We will hold the defense in Kursk region for as long as it is expedient and necessary,” he added.
Meanwhile, Russian official sources, which kept silent during the Ukrainian Armed Forces operation in the summer, are now vying with each other to report on the situation in Kursk region. The Russian Defense Ministry has already managed to publish a video of “liberated” Sudzha – the footage shows a destroyed city with the remains of charred facades of houses. Although, in general, this is standard behavior of Russian troops, noted Roman Kostenko, Secretary of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on National Security, Defense and Intelligence.
“Look at the cities they 'liberated' in the east and south. They don't take anything into account, neither military nor civilian losses. They destroy everything. They realized that Ukrainians cannot be taken so easily, neither the civilian population nor the military, and the only thing is to simply wipe the city off the face of the earth with everyone who is there,” Kostenko said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin also allegedly came to the Kursk region, and for this occasion he even put on a camouflage uniform for the second time during the entire full-scale war (the first time he put on a pea coat was in September 2022 during the Vostok-2022 exercises – ed.). With his presence, he obviously sought to refute what the Kremlin had been accused of since August – indifference to the Russian region. In addition, this “visit” was a signal that the events in the Kursk region were unfolding exclusively in favor of the Russian Federation.
As the publication's sources explain, the decision to completely withdraw from the Kursk region has not been made now – only to reduce the bridgehead. Its area is currently approximately 150 square kilometers. According to the information that RBC-Ukraine has, the number of Ukrainian units that were in the Kursk region was from 2 to 5 thousand people. In recent days, some of the units have been withdrawn to the territory of Ukraine.
“It is clear that sooner or later we will have to leave there completely. But for now the plan is to stay there as long as it is possible,” said one of the interlocutors.
MP Kostenko also speaks about this. According to him, Ukrainian troops have lost some settlements and are now trying to hold the defense.
“I think the main task is not to enter our territory, but to leave it to defend itself on Russian territory in order to carry out strikes and to have a buffer zone on the territory of the Russian Federation. How it will be there will depend on what decisions the command will make, what resources there will be, how our soldiers will fight,” says Kostenko.
As for the complete withdrawal from the Kursk region, experts note that it cannot be called a catastrophe. According to reserve major of the Ukrainian Armed Forces Alexey Getman, the operation was initially considered a raid by Ukrainian troops on Russian territory.
“This is a military-political operation, it has fulfilled the mission that was assigned to it, and continues to fulfill it. But if the threat to our troops increases significantly, then I think that the order to withdraw will be given. Moreover, there is information that some brigades are leaving and have left. Therefore, it is not worth considering that leaving the Kursk region is some kind of defeat,” Getman adds in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
Threat to Sumy region
While advancing on Kursk region, Russians traditionally actively “throw” various disinformation into the information space to demoralize Ukrainian military. One of the “legends” that has been discussed in the media for a week is the exit of Russian troops to the border with Sumy region. If you believe the propagandists, Russians have captured Sumy region dozens of times recently.
In fact, the enemy is still trying to accumulate on the border, cross it and gain a foothold in the direction of Novyenkiy. The Russians' goal is most likely to encircle Ukrainian troops and completely cut off logistics. However, Russian troops are unable to gain a foothold, so they are using the tactics of small assault groups. This is about five servicemen who are trying to cross the Ukrainian border, reports the spokesman for the State Border Service of Ukraine Andriy Demchenko.
Ukrainian military (Photo: Getty Images)
“In fact, there is no border breakthrough at the moment, as anyone in the Russian Federation can interpret it. The fact that individual servicemen crossed the border, trying to gain a foothold on our territory, and then died, is not a border breakthrough. Because in fact, the entire line of the state border with Russia can be considered a front line. And the enemy can try to break through anywhere, use some groups, including sabotage and reconnaissance groups,” Demchenko said in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
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After a series of Ukrainian counterattacks and the exhaustion of the occupation forces, the aggressor's advance in the East has noticeably slowed down. They have still not managed to enter Pokrovsk or Kupyansk. If Putin wants to present his people with some “victories” on May 9, then none of the listed Ukrainian cities have any prospects of becoming one. It can be assumed that Moscow has decided to make the “liberation” of the Kursk region the victory that they will be able to brag about to the Russians on May 9.
His alleged visit to a command post in the Kursk region fits logically into the context of this version. Despite the fact that Putin had previously tried not to publicly associate himself with the operation in this region, and official propaganda paid minimal attention to the situation in the Kursk region.
Although there may be another explanation for the Russians' actions. Earlier, Ukrainian government officials said that they were considering exchanging the controlled territory in the Kursk region for occupied Ukrainian territories during future negotiations. The Russian offensive there and now may be aimed precisely at thwarting these plans.
“I think this is the main aspect. There was information that Trump also threw this at them, like, what you don't want to negotiate about now, Ukrainian troops are occupying part of your territory. In 2024, it was our strategic victory, no matter what. The Russians advanced a little, but it was not strategic, and we achieved a strategic and geopolitical victory with small forces. Therefore, of course, they were still charged with this,” says Kostenko.
The Russians have become more active in Kursk region against the backdrop of a diplomatic process that is now being actively promoted by the United States. It is quite possible that, in an effort to deprive Ukraine of any strong negotiating position, Putin has instructed his military command to recapture Kursk region as soon as possible.