US and Russian Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin (photo: Getty images) Author: Yuri Doshchatov, Dmitry Sidorov
Ukraine and Russia, with the mediation of the United States, are agreeing on a moratorium on shelling energy facilities. This has not yet been formalized in any document, but the intensity of attacks on energy is now somewhat lower than in recent months. More details on who benefits most from the ceasefire regime are in the RBC-Ukraine article.
Content:
- Russia started lying on the first day of the agreements
- What Russia and Ukraine were shelling
- Losses from shelling of energy sector
Ukraine has confirmed its readiness not to attack Russia's energy infrastructure. This was one of the results of technical consultations between representatives of Ukraine and the United States on March 25 in Riyadh. “All (Ukraine and the United States – ed.) parties agreed to implement the agreements of the presidents on a complete ban on strikes on the energy infrastructure of Ukraine and Russia,” Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov said following the consultations.
In the near future, the parties will hold additional consultations to agree on the details, mechanisms for monitoring and control of compliance with the agreements. Third countries may be involved in such control.
At the political level, the cessation of mutual shelling of the energy infrastructure of Ukraine and the Russian Federation was agreed upon by the presidents of the United States and Russia on March 18. And although the Ukrainian side had previously supported Washington's idea of a 30-day comprehensive ceasefire, Kyiv did not reject a partial – energy – moratorium on shelling. Ukraine supported this idea, but noted that the specific contours of its implementation were unclear.
“After we receive details from the American president, from the American side, we will give our answer, we will prepare it, and the team will be ready for a technical conversation,” said Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
According to an informed source of RBC-Ukraine in the energy sector, neither the Ukrainian nor the Russian side has carried out large-scale shelling of energy facilities for several days. Although, according to presidential adviser Dmitry Litvin, at least 8 confirmed hits by the Russian Federation on Ukrainian energy facilities have been recorded since March 18. The attacks were carried out by attack drones and FPV drones, he noted. Therefore, it would be reckless to count on the Russian side fulfilling any agreements.
Following consultations in Riyadh, Volodymyr Zelensky reported that the Ukrainian side had given the US a list of objects that should not be shelled. RBC-Ukraine sources clarified that this was not a list of specific objects, but a list of their categories: energy production facilities, power generation, transportation, etc.
Russia also gave the US a similar list (of categories – ed.), which was agreed upon during consultations with the Americans. It included oil refineries; oil and gas pipelines and storage facilities, including pumping stations; electricity generating and transmitting infrastructure, including power plants, substations, transformers and distributors; nuclear power plants; hydroelectric dams.
Russia started lying on the first day of the agreements
A temporary 30-day moratorium on shelling of energy facilities, according to the Kremlin's statement, has been in effect since March 18 and may be extended. But if the moratorium is violated, either side may withdraw from the agreements. However, as was said above, this “truce” has not yet been recorded in any document.
Volodymyr Zelensky has already called this statement by the Russians a lie. “And there is something that the Kremlin is lying about again: that supposedly the silence in the Black Sea depends on the issue of sanctions and that supposedly the date for the start of the silence on energy is March 18. Moscow always lies. And it depends on the world – on everyone who really needs peace – whether they will allow Moscow to lie again,” the Ukrainian president said.
Commenting on the results of consultations with the US, he noted that all agreements reached on March 24 will come into force on March 24, including the agreement on ending shelling of energy facilities. That is, the end of the moratorium will not be on April 18, but on April 24.
But, in any case, there are at least three more weeks ahead, during which Ukraine and Russia have promised to refrain from shelling energy. If someone violates the agreement, the US will act as arbitrator. In any case, this is Ukraine's position.
“And today we have the following answer: if we see that someone is violating, as we believe, we appeal to the American side through all our channels with the facts and evidence that the Russian side violated (the ceasefire – ed.),” Zelensky said.
The probability of the agreements being broken and the moratorium being abandoned by the Russian side is quite high. Already on the day of the negotiations, the Russian Defense Ministry, in its usual style, without evidence, accused Ukraine of attacks on energy infrastructure in the Krasnodar Territory and some occupied territories.
What Russia and Ukraine were shelling
Drones began systematically attacking energy facilities in Russia in the fall of 2023. The targets were mainly oil refineries and oil depots. By the end of 2024, about a hundred attacks had been carried out, including in the Krasnodar Territory, Belgorod, Smolensk, Nizhny Novgorod, Tula, and Leningrad regions. Against the backdrop of attacks in 2024, gasoline production in Russia decreased by 6.4% to 41.1 million tons, diesel fuel by 7.4% to 81.6 million tons.
Fire at Russian power facility after Ukrainian attacks (photo: Getty images)
Since the beginning of 2025, oil facilities in ten regions of the aggressor country have come under attack. According to Ukrainian intelligence, about a third of Russian oil facilities used for military purposes have been damaged. As a result, the cost of oil products in Russia has increased and continues to increase. Now the average price of gasoline is already $0.71 per liter (in December – $0.6), diesel fuel – $0.85 (in December – $0.75). Gasoline exports are limited until the end of 2025.
As a result of the attacks, in 2025 alone, the Volgograd Oil Refinery's losses due to a 60% reduction in production could reach $30 million, while the Ryazan Oil Refinery's profit fell by 85% – the enterprise lost up to $14 million. As a result of the attacks, the condensate processing unit at the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant burned down, and it will take up to six months to restore it. The losses could amount to tens of billions of rubles.
“According to conservative estimates (if the plant continues to operate with an inactive gas condensate block), the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant could lose $228.3–456.6 million. If the plant stops completely for this period, the damage will amount to $331–662 million,” In Factum reports.
According to Reuters, drone attacks and sanctions have led to 41.1 million tons of downtime, more than 12% of Russia's total . Oil refining volumes in 2024 fell to a 12-year low. The profit and loss balance of oil product producers for the first 10 months of 2024 fell by 21% (to 2,216 billion rubles), which is confirmed by Russian analysts.
“Here, the key role was played by breakdowns and damage to the refinery infrastructure, which is difficult to repair due to sanctions on the supply of equipment for oil refining. The timing of unscheduled repairs is becoming unpredictable, as a result – a reduction in the output of petroleum products, which leads to financial losses for oil companies,” notes expert Kirill Rodionov.
In Ukraine, Russia attacked mainly electricity generation and distribution facilities. The effect was noticeable – a third of electricity production was lost. Power outages lasted up to 12 hours.
Restoration of destroyed facilities of the Ukrainian energy system (photo: Getty images)
Last year, shelling of gas infrastructure began. Russians tried to disable GTS and gas production facilities. As a result, production decreased by almost 40%, and until it is restored, gas reserves in storage facilities have decreased to a historical minimum. Currently, there is less than 1 billion cubic meters of active gas in underground gas storage facilities.
Losses from shelling of energy sector
It is quite difficult to more accurately assess the effectiveness of Ukrainian attacks on the energy infrastructure of the Russian Federation due to the lack of sufficient data and facts on the volumes of processing and export of oil and oil products, believes the director of the Consulting Company “A-95” Sergey Kuyun. But their effectiveness, given the extent of the damage caused, is beyond any doubt.
“It is difficult to destroy refineries with drones due to the huge areas that these enterprises occupy and the fact that most of them have several production lines that can replace each other. Therefore, we see that all enterprises have resumed operations over time. However, this does not mean that the damage caused was insignificant. It is known that the damage to primary and secondary oil refining complexes, their repair and replacement of equipment can cost tens of millions of dollars in each individual case,” Kuyun said in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
According to Alexander Sirenko, an analyst at the consulting company Naftorinok, the most effective attacks on Russian oil refining were precisely at the beginning of this tactic – in January-February 2024. But still, Russia did not experience an acute shortage of oil products. “For me, there is an important indicator – a fuel shortage at their gas stations, when it appears, and when we see the import of aviation fuel to Russia. These will be indicators (of a significant reduction in production at refineries – ed.), but now there is no such thing,” Sirenko noted.
According to energy expert Gennady Ryabtsev, in 2024, the shortfall in oil products (gasoline, diesel, aviation kerosene, rocket fuel) in Russia amounted to about 20 million tons, which corresponds to two years of its consumption in Ukraine.
To restore these losses, according to the expert, the Russians even resorted to technological cannibalism, when surviving equipment is removed from several installations in order to resume operation of one of them.
But the attacks on energy facilities were not critical for the Russians. “This led to a situational shortage of fuel, restrictions in its supply, an increase in cost, but it did not lead to a significant shortage of oil products for the needs of the Russian army. The impact is indeed important, but it is not critical for waging war against Ukraine,” Ryabtsev noted.
Political strategist Taras Zagorodniy believes that the damage to Russia from the shelling of oil industry facilities is quite large. “There is a threat that Ukraine could cut off Russia's real exports. Not with these sanctions (which the EU is applying – ed.). The best sanctions are strikes,” he said in a commentary to the YouTube channel RBC-Ukraine.
“Ukraine already has drones for 3 thousand kilometers, and that means Urengoy. And that means gas pumping stations, and this is not only through pipelines inside Russia, but also export to China. They know that the missile program is not standing still, surprises are piling up and therefore they are trying to save themselves (trying to agree on stopping the shelling of the energy sector – ed.),” Zagorodniy believes.
For Ukraine, there were many more vulnerabilities. The attack on November 23, 2022, resulted in a single blackout, when nuclear power plants and many other power plants were temporarily disconnected from the grid, causing the power system to operate in energy island mode.
Since then, the Russians have continued to attack large thermal power plants, hydroelectric power plants, and substations of Ukrenergo. During 2022-2025, Ukrenergo built and continues to build protective structures at its substations to protect against drones and missile debris, which has significantly increased the effectiveness of protecting the company's facilities. Realizing this, the Russians have switched to other targets.
“They realized that Ukrenergo has a reserve of transformers, other equipment, and has second-level protection. Attacks with 10-15 Shaheds on one target of Ukrenergo do not work, and they switched to destroying the facilities of the OCP (regional power company – ed.),” Olga Kosharnaya, co-founder of the NGO “Anticrisis Expert Nuclear Center of Ukraine”, told RBC-Ukraine.
According to her, the regional power company's facilities are small substations compared to Ukrenergo's property, of which there are quite a lot (hundreds), and they are scattered throughout the country, which greatly complicates the possibility of protecting them. “There are many of these transformers, they are now sending 15-20 “Shakheds” to the key transformers of “DTEK Odessa Electric Networks” in order to leave the city and ports without electricity,” Kosharnaya added.
According to her, in addition to the regional power company facilities, another vulnerable link in the Ukrainian energy sector is the open distribution devices of nuclear power plants, which ensure the output of nuclear power plant capacity into the energy system. The corresponding levels of protection at these facilities are still being built.
According to Ryabtsev, the vulnerability of the Ukrainian energy sector is also explained by the insufficient number of air defense systems and the difficulty of protecting large structures, such as nuclear power plant units, thermal power plants, and hydroelectric power plant dams. Protective structures for smaller objects, namely substations, are, of course, being built, but time is needed to implement this program.
“The second-level engineering protection program is designed for this year and the next, so not all facilities are equipped with this level of protection. There is not enough money, time, and people to carry out the work,” the expert explained.
Stopping the shelling of energy facilities is extremely important for Ukraine. First of all, it will allow the infrastructure to be prepared for the next heating season. Scheduled repairs must be carried out at NPP units, and thermal power plants and gas production must be restored as far as possible. All this will have to be done in the spring and summer, when electricity consumption increases again. If the shelling of energy facilities continues, then in the summer of 2025 Ukraine may again face a serious generation deficit and power outages.