The dollar may fall.
At the end of 2023, the situation on the Ukrainian foreign exchange market will be quite encouraging. Perhaps perhaps the best of the entire current year.
Banker Taras Lesovoy reported this in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
According to him, in a cashless market under conditions of “managed flexibility,” a return to the temporary dominance of supply over demand is quite possible. This will be reflected in the current rates: the exchange rate corridor will be in the range of 37-37.75 UAH. per dollar and 39-40.5 UAH. per euro. The expert notes that current exchange rate changes will not exceed UAH 0.2, and the difference between the buying and selling rates is less than UAH 0.1.
At the same time, Lesovoy notes that this will become possible with the NBU’s soft intervention tactics and volumes of foreign exchange interventions.
“At the same time, after the abolition of currency restrictions, the cash market will confidently imitate the exchange rate behavior of the interbank market, and market players will compete with each other with their own rates. In addition, the objective dominance of supply over demand due to the “holiday factor” will bring the cash rate even closer to the interbank exchange rate “We assume that in the last week of the year the difference will be almost zero (such a rapprochement should be considered situational for now, but we do not rule out that this will continue at the beginning of 2024),” Lesovoy said.
The expert noted that the foreign exchange market is confidently moving towards a single exchange rate – in fact, this will be a consequence of complete liberalization and minimization of regulatory interventions in the market.
“In the last week of December, the tendency for the interbank and cash market rates to gradually move closer to each other will continue. In addition, if you look a little more broadly, we can say that the circumstances of a completely “free” market are already in effect, because “free” exchange rate formation on the interbank market dictates conditions in the cash market. At the same time, minor current multi-vector fluctuations will be observed during the week, but their impact on the market will be barely noticeable and will not be able to change current trends,” the banker predicts.
As reported, in Ukraine the dollar is already more expensive than 38 hryvnia. What financial analysts warned about happened: as soon as the National Bank stopped actively supporting the hryvnia exchange rate, it began to depreciate.
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