An analyst predicts a smooth devaluation of the hryvnia by the end of the year.
The dollar exchange rate by the end of 2024 in Ukraine on the cash market will approach the level of 42-43 UAH/dollar. That is, the American currency will gradually become more expensive.
This forecast was made by analyst Alexey Kozyrev, reports “Minfin”.
Dollar exchange rate by the end of 2024
According to the expert, on the cash market, the US dollar exchange rate by the end of the year will approach the corridor levels of 42-43 UAH.
“In this case, the international strengthening of the American currency's position in combination with the devaluation of the hryvnia in Ukraine will go in the same trend for Ukrainians. That is, the dollar will gradually become more expensive,” Kozyrev noted.
According to his estimates, in 2025, “the trend of strengthening the dollar in foreign markets will begin to fizzle out, and in Ukraine, the American currency rate will remain hostage to the behavior of the National Bank on the market.”
Euro exchange rate until the end of 2024
As for the euro exchange rate in Ukraine, Kozyrev pointed out that the situation will become even more complicated. The exchange rate of this currency will be simultaneously affected by both the factor of the international weakening of the euro against the dollar and the growth of the dollar against the hryvnia.
“Therefore, under the baseline scenario of the growth of the dollar exchange rate on the interbank market to 41.70-42.10 hryvnia by the end of 2024 and the ratio of the euro/dollar pair within 1.06-1.09 dollars per euro, the exchange rate of the non-cash euro by the end of 2024 will be within the corridor from 44.20 to 45.89 hryvnia. That is, somewhat lower than the current quotes at the auction. And on the cash market, the euro exchange rate will approach the corridor levels of 44.52-46.87 UAH by the end of the year,” the analyst's forecast says.
Kozyrev also pointed out that on the interbank market, judging by the latest budget calculations for 2025 and the regulator's actions in September, there will be a smooth devaluation of the hryvnia to levels of about 41.70-42.10 UAH/USD by the end of 2024.
By the way, banking market players predict that by the end of the year, the dollar exchange rate will fluctuate within the current corridor of 41.3-42 UAH. Therefore, there is no point in buying up the American currency.
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