UIF considers the current strengthening temporary. Fundamental factors, in particular the deterioration of the balance of payments in 2024, will put pressure on the hryvnia, which will lead to its devaluation.
In February, the hryvnia exchange rate exceeded the forecasts of analysts at the Ukrainian Institute for the Future (UIF). The dollar was expected to cost around 42 hryvnias, but the National Bank kept the rate at 41.5 hryvnias per dollar even without the influx of Western funding.
According to UIF experts, the regulator has moved to actively curbing inflation due to control over the exchange rate of the national currency.
They also point out that the rate is formed taking into account the currency basket, which includes both the dollar and the euro. Since the euro strengthened from 1.03 to 1.08 to the dollar, this contributed to a similar strengthening of the hryvnia.
Despite this, the UIF considers the current strengthening temporary. Fundamental factors, in particular, the deterioration of the balance of payments in 2024, will put pressure on the hryvnia, which will lead to its devaluation. According to the institute's forecasts, by the end of 2025 the dollar exchange rate may be 46 hryvnias.
Earlier we wrote that the NBU will have to weaken the hryvnia against the dollar. A strong Ukrainian currency creates risks in the context of uncertainty about aid to Ukraine.
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