According to the head of the Verkhovna Rada committee, the current pace of economic recovery is too slow.
The current pace of economic recovery in Ukraine is clearly insufficient to at least return to the 2021 level in the short term. If the situation does not change, then by the end of 2025, Ukraine's real GDP will be 20% less than before the start of a full-scale war – without taking into account the temporarily occupied territories and the combat zone.
This was stated by the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee on Finance, Tax and Customs Policy, Danylo Getmantsev, on his Telegram channel.
“With the current rate of economic growth, we will reach the pre-war level of GDP in real terms in 2034. Security risks have been and will remain the main constraint on development. In this context, during the peace talks, it is really important for us to receive reliable guarantees, both in the area of security and economic guarantees for post-war development. After all, long-term peace and socio-economic development are very much connected,” Getmantsev noted.
According to the Ministry of Economy, compared to last year, real GDP growth in February 2025 was 0.7%, and in January-February – 1.1%. And according to annual forecasts, GDP growth is expected at 2.7%.
By comparison, the first year of full-scale war saw the Ukrainian economy contract by 28.8%, but in 2023 it grew by 5.3%.
“The Ukrainian economy has been slowing since the second quarter of last year against a higher baseline for recovery and depletion due to full-scale war (shelling of infrastructure, power shortages, structural problems in the labor market and other security factors that negatively affect production activity and business expectations),” the MP explained.
At the same time, at the beginning of 2025, weak export activity was added to the negative factors affecting the Ukrainian economy, which in the first 2 months of this year decreased by 7.4% or half a billion dollars compared to the same period last year.
“This, in turn, suppressed the recovery in the freight transportation sector and the work of the transport complex. According to estimates by the relevant ministry, the production of livestock products was also reduced, the added value of which is under pressure from the growth of production costs,” noted Getmantsev.
After the start of a full-scale war, Ukrainian experts determined that Ukraine needed about 750 billion dollars to restore the country.
“We must also be confident about full access to the EU market in the short term. It will be necessary to discuss with partners the conditions for avoiding trade disputes. Agreements are needed to launch joint projects in promising sectors of the national economy. Moreover, not only individual agreements regarding subsoil and mineral resources, but in such areas as the military-industrial complex, logistics infrastructure, energy, agricultural and agro-processing, etc.,” the deputy added.
Danylo Getmantsev also reported that an international Conference on the restoration of Ukraine will be held in Rome in July, which is a “good opportunity” to discuss economic guarantees and reach specific agreements.
Recall that in February 2025, the inflation rate accelerated to 13.4% year-on-year, and prices rose by 0.8% per month. According to NBU forecasts, core inflation will continue to exceed expectations.